In a global warming scenario of 3°C above pre-industrial levels and without adaptation measures, nearly 300 million EU and UK citizens will be exposed to deadly heat waves each year, resulting in a 30-fold increase in the number of deaths due to this phenomenon, according to a new report from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), published on Thursday 14 May.
This paper quantitatively assesses the implications of climate change for different sectors and regions in the EU when mitigation and adaptation measures are taken (global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C) compared to a situation where no policy action is taken (global warming of 3°C and no adaptation measures).
In the second scenario, in addition to stronger and more frequent heat waves, the report mentions in particular a drop of up to 40% in water resources in southern European regions and a drop of more than 10% in crop yields in these regions.
A further 15 million Europeans living close to wilderness areas would be exposed to a high to extreme fire hazard for at least ten days a year.
On floods, the paper estimates that almost half a million people in the EU and the UK would be exposed to river flooding each year, almost three times the current number. This number would be 2.2 million people with regards to coastal flooding, compared to 100,000 currently.
In economic terms, if a 3°C warming were to occur in today’s economy, the annual loss of wealth in the EU and the UK could amount to 1.4% of GDP.
Finally, it should be noted that on the same day, the Commission opened a public consultation on the future EU strategy on adaptation to climate change, two days after opening the consultation on the roadmap for this strategy (see EUROPE 12486/16).
To view the report and access the public consultation: https://bit.ly/3czXvyB; https://bit.ly/2WWyRl7 (Original version in French by Damien Genicot)