One of the UK's most-loved sitcoms follows the antics of a group of builders who emigrate to Germany in the 1970s to find work. The title provides an apt (and ironic) epilogue to the UK’s 47 years of EU membership.
The shock Brexit vote in 2016 reduced many EU officials to tears, sent diplomats into a tailspin and landed European leaders with the task of solving a problem they felt they didn’t create. The distress and disbelief soon gave way to frustration and fatigue, as negotiations dragged on. Now, on Brexit Day, the mood is bittersweet, as feelings of relief mix with a sense of foreboding. Because although the first phase of Brexit is done, the second phase is yet to come.
“An emotional day,” tweeted the EU’s lead Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier. “My overall feeling today is one of sadness,” Simon Coveney, Ireland’s foreign and Brexit minister, told Newstalk radio. “I think everybody loses here.” The leaders of the EU’s three main institutions took a slightly harder line, seeking to turn the page on Brexit, while warning the UK government that its dreams of deregulation would reduce the country’s access to the bloc’s single market. “Every choice has a consequence,” they wrote in an op-ed on Friday. “Without being a member, you cannot retain the benefits of membership.”
It’s easy to see why the tone has hardened – on both sides. To say the negotiations were complex would be a gross understatement: the talks have been incessant, arcane and often painful, with EU-UK relations fraying on several occasions. There was the leak of a Downing Street dinner conversation in October 2017, where former British premier Theresa May reportedly “begged” Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker for help and appeared “anxious, despondent and disheartened”. UK officials blamed the former head of Mr Juncker’s cabinet (and subsequent Commission secretary general) Martin Selmayr. Some things got lost in translation. “Did you call me nebulous?” May was seen to ask Juncker ahead of the December 2018 EU summit, only a few months after the EU trashed her Chequers plan for Brexit.
Old wounds have also reopened: over fishing rights, Gibraltar and Northern Ireland. As an Irish reporter working for papers in both Dublin and London, this columnist often felt torn. Before the talks started, in 2016, senior British officials expressed their surprise at what they saw as the Irish government’s “harsher” tone on Brexit. It was a shock to many in the UK that Ireland’s priority was to cement its EU membership rather than to turn towards the UK. It has been shocking to listen to some of the Brexiteer rhetoric (and ignorance) about Ireland, north and south of the border.
Just a year ago, BBC radio presenter John Humphrys even suggested to a bewildered Helen McEntee (Ireland’s Europe minister) that the country could “leave the EU and throw in their lot” with the UK. McEntee replied: “To suggest that we should leave? Ninety-two per cent of Irish people last year said they wanted Ireland to remain part of the European Union and, in fact, since Brexit that figure has gotten only bigger.”
Some people have had a great Brexit. It has become a cliché to say it, but the EU hasn’t been this united since its formation – poetically so, with the leaders of the three EU institutions writing on Friday about “a new dawn for Europe” and the “shared purpose” of the remaining 27 member states. Twitter handle @BorderIrish has garnered over 110,000 followers with its pointed witticisms about the 500km-long frontier (“I’m seamless & frictionless already, thanks,” the anonymous author says in their Twitter bio). And Irish diplomats deserve a shout-out too; never before has Irish history and politics gotten such an airing. The B-Word knows at least one northern European official who has been converted into a quasi-Irish nationalist!
MEPs, who this week voted through the EU-UK withdrawal agreement by an overwhelming majority, sang songs, held hands and grew sentimental as their 73 British colleagues left the plenary chamber (see EUROPE 12414/1). Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s Brexit coordinator, said it was not an ‘adieu’, but an ‘au revoir’. Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar echoed his comments, saying there should “always be a place at the table” for the UK if it decides to rejoin the bloc. And Scotland, which voted to Remain in 2016, was very clear. “Dear Europe: We didn’t vote for this. Remember to leave a light on for Scotland,” said the front page The National newspaper.
That paper also carried the startling results of a new YouGov poll showing, for the first time ever, that there is majority (at 51% to 49%) in favour of Scottish independence. And it’s not the only warning sign that the post-Brexit period will be just as divisive – if not more so – than the divorce proceedings have been.
“Business is far from having any certainty on the future EU-UK relationship and the spectre of a ‘cliff edge’ is not yet off the table,” said BusinessEurope President Pierre Gattaz. EU trade commissioner Phil Hogan says a “crash out” Brexit is still on the cards. “The real cut-off point is 31 December 2020, not 31 January,” he told RTE television. “So, people should come out of their slumber is some way and wake up to the reality that we're in the intensive phase of the negotiations and in the more risky part.”
Celebrations and commemorations have been deliberately muted. There will be a light show in London, rather than fireworks, and a countdown clock will be projected on to the walls of the prime minister’s residence in Downing Street, but the Big Ben “bong” that Brexiteers were after will not happen. There was music and dancing in Brussels’ Grand Place on Thursday night, although a farewell party on Place Luxembourg was rained out. Brexit Party MEPs said little before catching the Eurostar on Friday, which party spokesman Hermann Kelly dubbed their “final Brexodus”.
Nothing dramatic will change overnight. EU and UK citizens will still be able to travel and trade unrestricted, as the UK remains in the single market and customs union until the end of December. But there will be some adjustments. From Saturday, the UK will lose its privileged access to the EU institutions. Its permanent representation to the EU will from now on be known as the UK “mission” to the EU (as it is for countries like Japan or Australia). And the EU will redouble its efforts to turn its attention away from Brexit and towards other pressing matters, such as agreeing the bloc’s long-term budget and easing trade relations with the US.
It’s been a pleasure to be able to share some of my reflections on Brexit in these pages over the last few years. This will be the last B-Word, but it won’t be the last word! To quote another much-loved UK comedy troupe: “And now for something completely different.” (Sarah Collins)