Donald Tusk may wonder about a “special place in hell” for ill-prepared Brexiteers, but this feels more like Brexit limbo (EUROPE 12188).
A Brexit debate next week in the UK parliament is set to be yet another placeholder. It follows the parliament’s 2:1 rejection of the exit treaty on 15 January (EUROPE 12172) and a non-binding vote on 29 January calling on prime minister Theresa May to renegotiate the Irish border backstop (EUROPE 12183).
She promised to bring back a revised deal for a new vote “as soon as possible” or to call a debate on Brexit. That debate will take place on Thursday 14 February, based on a motion tabled by the prime minister and subject to MPs’ amendments.
The motion is likely to be nothing more than a general progress report, and the usual suspects (Labour’s Yvette Cooper, Tory Nick Boles) are likely to table the usual amendments to that motion, from an article 50 extension to a second referendum. Any amendments accepted by the speaker can be put to a vote, but a “meaningful vote” on the exit deal itself is unlikely to take place any time soon.
It will be interesting to see how Labour plays its hand during the debate, following party leader Jeremy Corbyn’s letter to Mrs May this week calling for a “permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union” with the EU. He wants “changes” to the prime minister’s red lines, and a commitment to “close alignment” with the EU’s single market rules, “dynamic alignment” on labour, environmental and social standards, and guarantees of UK participation in EU agencies and security databases.
It will also be telling how May chooses to frame her talks in Brussels this week. A joint EU-UK statement described the meetings as “robust but constructive” (EUROPE 12189). Judging by the body language, they were tense and disappointing, with the EU again refusing any changes to the withdrawal agreement, including the Irish backstop.
European Council president Donald Tusk described Corbyn’s ideas as promising this week, but they are likely to alienate Tory Brexiteers, who want May to push for a time limit on the Irish backstop. All the EU is offering so far is tweaks to the non-binding political declaration on future relations, which probably won’t be enough to get a final Brexit deal through the UK parliament.
As Mr Tusk tweeted after his meeting with Mrs May this week: “Still no breakthrough in sight.”
That leaves both sides scrambling to prepare for no deal. A secret group at the heart of the UK government is reportedly drawing up a plan (dubbed ‘Project After’) to boost the economy in the event of a no-deal Brexit, with options ranging from tax cuts to spending sprees. The EU, meanwhile, has reached agreement on a network of new maritime links between Ireland, France, Belgium and the Netherlands (see other news).
Also on the agenda: EU lead negotiator Michel Barnier was due to brief EU ambassadors this Friday morning, while Mrs May was due to meet Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar in Dublin this evening following another rough week for Anglo-Irish relations. Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay will travel to Brussels on Monday to meet Mr Barnier, with EU and UK negotiating teams due to resume talks in the coming days, before a progress report by May and Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker at the end of the month. (Sarah Collins)