The European Commission and Member States were waiting on Wednesday 16 January, after the British Parliament rejected on Tuesday, by 432 votes to 202, Prime Minister Theresa May's agreement with the EU (see EUROPE 12172) on the country's withdrawal and the political declaration on future relations.
Following the statement of the Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and the President of the European Council Donald Tusk, Michel Barnier, who led the negotiations on behalf of the EU, expressed his "deep regret" for this vote, which "showed that the political conditions for ratification do not yet exist”.
In front of the MEPs, who were listening to him on Wednesday morning, Michel Barnier said that the risk of an exit without an agreement was now "higher than ever". The Frenchman regretted this result all the more since the agreement reached had been the result of work with the European parliamentarians and with the British government, whose red lines had been respected. “It is up to the British authorities to evaluate this vote today or tomorrow", he added, "and to say how they intend to proceed with an orderly withdrawal by 29 March”.
The evening before, Mr Juncker and Mr Tusk had asked for the same clarity. "There is nothing else we can do", insisted Margaritis Schinas, Commission spokesperson, explaining that Mr Juncker had already met or would meet with all European leaders and that the institution was always "ready to meet or discuss" with them, including Theresa May.
Possible opening on the political declaration, if London reviews its red lines
For Mr Barnier, it is always possible to discuss, indeed. The EU has always "said that if the United Kingdom moves its red lines and goes beyond a simple free trade agreement, the EU will be immediately ready to accompany this move and respond positively", as the Council and European Parliament have always said, he noted.
But the negotiator did not make this opening on the withdrawal agreement, an agreement that European leaders are not ready to renegotiate. Mr Barnier also insisted on Wednesday on the need to keep the safety net for Ireland. But “until the outcome is clearly identified and supported by a parliamentary majority, we will not be able to move forward; therefore, the next steps must be clearly indicated by the British government", he warned.
Vote of no confidence against Ms May Wednesday evening
Theresa May, for her part, had to face a vote of no confidence on Wednesday evening, as requested by Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader. A vote she has won, according to the British media. She will then have 3 days, in theory, to develop a plan. For the Prime Minister of Scotland, Nicola Surgeon, the minimum to expect would be for Ms May to ask for the extension of Article 50 to "stop the clock” on Brexit to take place on 29 March, she said on her Twitter account on Tuesday evening.
The vote in the British Parliament expresses several things at once, between Labour seeking to take power and negotiate a closer relationship with the EU, those in favour of a brutal exit without agreement and those in favour of another referendum, without either scenario having a majority. Of the 317 Tory deputies, 118 voted against Ms May's agreement.
According to one European observer, new elections would be the logical scenario with a new negotiation on the type of relationship desired, some referring to a "Norway ++" type offer. In any case, Ms May is under pressure from some Members of Parliament to accept a real customs union.
In any case, the prospect of an extension of Article 50, while it should, in theory, be accepted by the Twenty-Seven, does not please everyone. "This would be extremely complicated with the European elections", according to the European source. The European Parliament also believes that this should necessarily stop before these elections (see other news).
For their part, the ambassadors of the Twenty-Seven met early Wednesday afternoon to discuss the latest developments. The meeting was quite short and was mainly used to advocate for intensified preparation for an exit without agreement. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)