The EU-27 Ministers responsible for European Affairs will be informed, on Tuesday 16 October in Luxembourg, at a General Affairs Council (Article 50 format), of the negotiations on the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union after a week of intense talks that ended in failure on Sunday 14 October in Brussels, in the presence of the British Secretary of State for Brexit, Dominic Raab.
In a speech to the British Parliament, Theresa May did not seem overly pessimistic on Monday October 15. The British leader continues to believe in an agreement that would allow for an orderly withdrawal from her country.
But she justified the failure of the latest talks by the fact that her country was unable to approve the European terms of the 'backstop' intended to prevent the return of a physical border to Ireland (see EUROPE 12115).
"Creating any form of customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK would mean a fundamental change in the day-to-day experience for businesses in Northern Ireland – with the potential to affect jobs and investment," she explained.
Nevertheless, she said, the EU had reacted positively in recent days by agreeing to explore a UK-wide customs solution to solve this problem.
After days and nights of talks, European negotiators informed the ambassadors of the Twenty-Seven on Sunday evening that an agreement had not yet been reached.
According to the British newspaper The Guardian, Mr Raab told them that he was not in a position to validate this project. The British government was put under pressure by the unionist DUP party, which refused any solution that would administratively drive Northern Ireland and the rest of the country away.
There would also be problems with the legal basis. Can Article 50 of the Treaty, activated by the United Kingdom to start negotiations on its withdrawal from the EU, be appropriate for the future post-Brexit relationship and a multi-year temporary customs union solution? The EU is not sure.
Despite all the hard work and effort, there are still "unresolved issues, particularly on the safety net for Ireland", Michel Barnier wrote soberly on Twitter on Sunday.
"There will probably be no formal agreement on Wednesday", explained a diplomat Sunday evening, but there is still a chance in November at an extraordinary European summit, he said.
In fact, "in December" , Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar even reacted on Monday.
For another observer, a Brexit without an agreement would be a "very bad thing for both parties, so it is certain that we will work until the last minute to get an agreement".
The Commission showed itself a little more reserved on Monday at lunchtime and announced, through its spokesperson, Margaritis Schinas, that the work to prepare for a "hard Brexit" would be intensified.
No negotiations will take place between now and the European Summit, which on Wednesday 17 October is scheduled to hold a dinner in Twenty-Seven with Michel Barnier. Theresa May was invited to speak before the Twenty-Seven, but her visit had yet to be confirmed, as AFP had announced that she could only be there on Thursday morning.
Meanwhile, the Twenty-Seven and the President of the European Council warned last week that in the absence of decisive progress on the Irish issue, they could refrain from convening an exceptional summit in November, or in order to intensify preparations for a British withdrawal without agreement. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)