During a hearing at the European Parliament on Thursday 12 April, the researchers Cornelius Adebahr and Ellie Geranmayeh said that Europeans should work with the United States to find common ground on the Iranian nuclear programme agreement. US President Donald Trump has set Saturday 12 May as the deadline for remedying the agreement's shortcomings.
"Every effort from the European leaders to negotiate with the USA is really essential. We need to speak about the '4Ms': Mrs Mogherini, Mrs May, Mrs Merkel and Mr Macron will have to meet before 12 May to reach a strong position", Cornelius Adebahr, a non-resident researcher at Carnegie Europe, stated.
The European Union and the European countries from the E3+3 Group participated in the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear programme agreement.
According to Ellie Geranmayeh, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, the US government will continue to put pressure on the three European countries "either to accept the unilateral violation of the agreement by the Americans, or to make Europeans accomplices in the matter". "It is important not to continue until 12 May as if nothing had happened. The three European countries must negotiate with the US government and Congress to find a legislative or political solution to reduce the uncertainties of the agreement", she said.
In Geranmayeh's view, Europeans must have a strong and common position in the coming months, and must resist US pressure while showing openness to Washington. "It is important not to put the cards on the table too early", she said, advocating a "staged" response, especially on the sanctions, "to ensure the agreement is respected by the Americans".
"It is perfectly clear for the opponents (of the agreement) in Washington that the Europeans will finish by yielding to the pressure. (The Americans) hope to obtain significant concessions from the EU on the agreement and on other issues, to force Iran to no longer respect the agreement and to leave it (...) It is a question of not taking any measures that could make Iran think the Europeans will leave the agreement. The message must be: 'we will respect the agreement, but we will also deal very seriously with other disputes", Geranmayeh stated.
For Adebahr, the EU "cannot remain blind in relation to what is happening in Iran just to appease the country".
In Luxembourg on Monday 16 April, the foreign affairs ministers will discuss the implementation of the JCPOA on the Iranian nuclear agreement. They could also speak about possible sanctions linked to Iran's role in the region, especially in Syria, and its ballistic missile programme. These measures, promoted by Germany, France and the UK, are without unanimity within the EU28 (see EUROPE 11984).
According to Geranmayeh, if the USA withdraws from the agreement, the main challenge will be that of the ability of the Europeans to propose a mechanism avoiding a mechanism process of secondary sanctions on European companies –because the US sanctions have an extraterritorial effect.
"The three European countries from the E3 should set up a bigger coalition to act as a counterbalance, with other EU member states. And having China and Russia participate in it, as well as other Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea and India", she said. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)