It could take 26 years before all free-trade agreements to be negotiated - one at a time, given the limited negotiation capacities of the British administration - by the United Kingdom, once it leaves the EU, with its other principal trade partners - the United States, China, India, Australia and New Zealand - enter into force, the pro-European British think tank Open Britain, which is working to keep the UK in the single market, said in an analysis published on Tuesday 3 April.
Research conducted by Open Britain calculated the average time taken by each of the partner countries identified by the British Secretary State for Trade, Liam Fox, as priorities for post-Brexit free-trade deals, to conclude such agreements, from the beginning of negotiations until the entry into force: India takes on average six years and eleven months, China five years and nine months, Australia five years and one month, New Zealand four years and seven months and the United States three years and nine months.
As the British government will not be able to carry out more than one set of negotiations at the same time and that it is likely to be occupied with negotiating its free-trade deal with the EU for most of the 2020s, the United Kingdom will have to wait until 2045 at least before its future free-trade agreements with its principal commercial partners are in place, Open Britain warns.
“Given the enormous length of time needed to negotiate new trade agreements, we all have the right to ask if Brexit remains the best choice for our country and to keep open the option of saying 'no thanks' to what Theresa May brings back from her negotiations”, commented British Labour MP, Peter Kyle.
“Trade negotiations are nasty, brutish and long. After a hard Brexit, the UK will not be in a position to dictate terms to major economies like the US and China. Under pressure from ministers to salvage something after Brexit, [the British government] risks being taken for a ride by President Trump and others who will insist we lower our food and environmental standards - and possibly open up our NHS”, warned former European Commissioner and trade negotiator, Lord Patten. (Original version in French by Emmanuel Hagry)