The decision has been made. In his speech on Catalonia's independence referendum and its consequences, on Tuesday 10 October, the President of the Catalan government, Carles Puigdemont, opted for deferred and negotiated independence, to allow the autonomous region eventually to become an independent republic. However, the timetable and methodology are still being kept open.
“There will be a before and after 1 October. The voters said yes to independence and this is a result I have undertaken to apply”, said Puigdemont, who has pledged to pursue the independence process, but not without giving the negotiations plenty of breathing space.
After a lengthy introduction on the history of tension between Spain and Catalonia, the President said that by holding the referendum and the victory of the yes vote, Catalonia had “gained the right to be independent” and to be a state that was respected and listened to. Catalonia will one day be an independent republic, he immediately added, but he gave no timetable or specific process for it to achieve this independence.
Even so, Puigdemont hopes to involve all parties and went on to announce that the effects of this declaration had been suspended in order to prioritise dialogue with the Spanish government and arrange national and international mediation sessions. He announced that many proposals had been put to him since the referendum of 1 October, adding that all mediation was welcome, public or otherwise.
He launched an appeal to the citizens, politicians and media of Catalonia and Spain alike to facilitate dialogue, before turning to the EU to ask it to ensure that fundamental rights are respected.
The suspense was maintained until the very end, the speech having been postponed by an hour until the very last minute. The likely cause is reported to be the attempt by the Catalan opposition parties to have the speech deferred on the grounds of an excessively vague agenda, with wording reported to have been selected precisely in order to avoid any form of reprimand from the Spanish government.
Rumours were doing the rounds that the delay had been caused by an appeal by the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker. However, this was immediately denied by the institution's spokesperson-in-chief, Margaritis Schinas, on Twitter.
European institutions cautious to the end
At the midday press conference, the European Commission reiterated its legal and political stances: - the vote held in Catalonia was not constitutional and legal and is an internal question for Spain, to be dealt with by that member state under its Constitution; - any territory declaring its independence in line with the constitution of the member state in question would have to leave the European Union, in line with the "Prodi" doctrine; - finally, dialogue must be prioritised over violence “as a political instrument”. Spokesperson Alexander Winterstein stressed the institution's confidence in the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, to manage the situation in full respect of the Spanish constitution and fundamental rights, as the First Vice-President of the European Commission, Frans Timmermans, also told the European Parliament (see EUROPE 11876).
Earlier that day, the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, as a “regionalist” and “someone who knows what a truncheon feels like”, launched a heartful appeal to the President of the Catalan government, Carles Puigdemont, before the members of the Committee of the Regions, to respect the constitutional order of Spain and not close the door to dialogue. “Diversity must not and need not lead to conflict with terrible consequences: for Catalonians, for Spain and the whole of Europe”, he warned. The President of the European Council said that he had been in touch with Prime Minister Rajoy to find a solution without recourse to force.
The Committee of the Regions held a debate on Catalonia on the same day, added to its agenda at the last minute. The chair of the Spanish delegation to the CoE and alternate member for Catalonia opened the debate. The former repeated the stance of the central government: the referendum was illegal and dialogue must have its place. The latter explained that the Catalan referendum was a symptom of problems with Spanish democracy, where judges and the police have replaced any form of dialogue. The President of the Committee of the Regions, Karl-Heinz Lambertz, called several times for dialogue between the various stakeholders during a number of different statements to the media (see EUROPE 11873).
What happens now?
A divided Catalan political class. In Catalonia, the political classes are divided, as shown by the speech by Ada Colau, Mayor of Barcelona, who said the day before Puigdemont's speech that the results of the referendum cannot guarantee the declaration of independence, but will provide an opportunity to build dialogue and international mediation, thereby taking the opposite stance to the Catalan president.
Switzerland, an option for mediation. According to the Swiss press, the Swiss Confederation has been contacted by the Catalan authorities. “Switzerland was predestined to mediate between Madrid and Catalonia”, Damian Muller, adviser to the states and representative of Lucerne, said on Sunday 8 October, adding that the EU appeared “bewildered” by the crisis. Currently, Spain is not reported have revealed its position. Catalonia's representative to the European institutions, Amadeu Altafaj i Tardio, said last week that Catalonia was considering a “European and non-European” mediation solution (see EUROPE 11874).
Spain's options. By article 155 of the Spanish Constitution, Spain has the option to suspend Catalonia's autonomy. If it uses this option, it would be a precedent that many observers consider will have considerable historic consequences. Therefore, some would prefer this option to be used in the worst-case scenario in preference to a state of emergency. As we went to press, the Spanish government's position was not known. Upon his arrival at the Eurogroup meeting, the Spanish Finance Minister, Luis De Guindos, said that any unilateral declaration of independence by Catalonia would be null and void (see EUROPE 11879). (Original version in French by Pascal Hansens)