Although the peace talks have well and truly come to a standstill, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini and the European Commission are already thinking about post-war Syria.
In their 18-page joint communication proposing a forward-looking European strategy for Syria, which was adopted on Tuesday 14 March, Mogherini and the Commission set out the EU's commitments in an early plan for Syria's transition and recovery. The joint communication says that in order to be ready to act swiftly and effectively at the right moment, preparations must begin in advance. Investment needs will be extremely large and comprehensive effort will be needed, the communication states.
However, this commitment will not be unconditional. The EU will not contribute to Syria's reconstruction before a comprehensive, authentic and inclusive political transition is underway, the joint communication states. And the EU does not want to bear the costs on its own. The communication says that the external actors who have fuelled the conflict will have to assume special responsibility for the costs of reconstruction. It adds that in preparation for a phase following a political agreement for peace, the EU will commit with Syria's neighbouring countries to discuss how these neighbours and Syria's regional actors can contribute to the country's reconstruction and to the return of refugees and displaced people.
Once the political transition has begun, in agreement with United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254 and the Geneva communiqué, the EU could lift its restrictive measures against Syria progressively and only in response to concrete and measurable progress. On the same basis, it could also resume its cooperation and mobilise financing, especially with the Trust Fund for Syria.
Similarly, without prejudice to the reconstruction priorities set out by the Syrians, the EU could bring its support in the area of security, especially through financing demining and the removal of unexploded ammunition, the removal of chemical agents, and small arms and light weapons. The support of local or international mechanisms to monitor the cessation of hostilities could be another area for action. The EU could also support reform of the security sector and the demilitarisation, demobilisation and reintegration of former fighters into civilian life or reformed security services.
Immediately after the transition agreement, the EU could help in swiftly re-establishing the provision of basic services at local level (education, health, water and electricity) and increase its support with regard to the population's livelihood. Europeans could also support inclusive processes of reconciliation at local level and help the transitional authorities address the most urgent issues, such as the situation of former detainees or people reported as missing, and the return of refugees and displaced people.
In the longer term, Europeans could support the reform of Syrian state institutions. The joint communication also highlights the importance of international coordination on the recovery of the Syrian economy. Macro-financial assistance from the EU could be made available for Syria, and the European Investment Bank (EIB) and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) could also be mobilised.
The joint communication from the Commission and High Representative will now be presented to the EU's foreign affairs ministers at the Council on 3 April. It will serve as a contribution to the international conference on Syria to be held in Brussels on 5 April (see EUROPE 11740). (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)