The Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, will attempt over lunch at the European Summit on Thursday 15 December to get his counterparts to agree on a binding decision to clarify the EU’s Association Agreement with Ukraine. The Netherlands is the only member state that has yet to ratify the agreement and Rutte wants guarantees to reassure people back home, most of whom voted against the agreement in a referendum on 6 April, and win ratification of the deal by the Dutch parliament.
Under a draft text seen by this newsletter, the decision would state that the agreement would not create a guarantee of defence or financial guarantees for Ukraine, and either would it grant Ukrainians the right to freely live or work in the European Union. The decision would confirm that the agreement it not a springboard to Ukraine joining the EU, a very sensitive issue for some member states. As far as Poland is concerned, it is inconceivable that the decision would rule out the medium or long-term perspective of Ukraine joining the EU.
A diplomat said that all these guarantees were tautological, but the Dutch government needs them to reassure people. Other diplomats say there is a lot of good will around the table for finding a satisfactory solution to save the agreement although at a sherpas meeting on Monday 12 December, consensus was not reached and the talks were tense with feelings flying high. The member states have their back against the wall, however, as Mark Rutte has already warned that if he doesn’t manage to win the guarantees he’s requesting, his government will lodge a law in parliament stating that the Netherlands will not ratify the Association Agreement. Consensus at the European Summit would not, however, actually guarantee ratification by the Dutch parliament and if the agreement is not reified by all the member states, it will become null and void.
After talks with Mark Rutte, the president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, will hold talks on Wednesday evening with the Ukrainian president, Petro Porochenko.
Prolongation of sanctions against Russia
At the summit, the heads of state are expected to agree to extend economic sanctions against Russia for six months. They will be briefed ahead by the German chancellor and French president about progress (or lack of it) in implementing the Minsk Agreements. On Tuesday 13 December, Angela Merkel and François Hollande called for prolongation of the sanctions. A diplomat says that no member states have yet raised any opposition to the idea of extending the sanctions, which currently run until 31 January 2017.
Words but no action over Syria
The European Summit is due to discuss the situation in Syria again, particularly in Aleppo. A draft conclusions document dated 12 December says that EU heads of state should firmly condemn the continuation of attacks on Aleppo by the Syrian regime and its allies, particularly Russia, including the deliberate targeting of civilians and hospitals, and calls on the Syrian regime and Russia to allow the United Nations to provide humanitarian aid and evacuate the sick and injured. More generally, the European Summit will call for an immediate ceasefire in Syria, noting that those responsible for violations of international law will be held to account. The Summit will say that the EU is considering all options available, hinting at additional sanctions against Syria since some member states still oppose sanctions on Russia over the Syrian crisis. The document says that the EU will work constructively with all partners under the auspices of the United Nations in the direction of a political transition and EU heads of state are expected to say that the EU will support reconstruction of Syria once a credible political transition is strongly in place. A diplomat, visibly aware of Europe’s impotence, said that the situation in Syria is tragic and there is something derisory about condemning and deploring it, but nobody is considering sending an expeditionary force to the country.
Finally, the president of Cyprus, Nicos Anastasiades, will inform his counterparts about the current talks on Cypriot reunification. These talks will resume on 12 January with a summit of the five parties (the Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders and the leaders of the guarantor nations of Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom). (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant with Mathieu Bion and Jan Kordys)