Brussels, 03/03/2016 (Agence Europe) - Following a Franco-British summit in Amiens (France) on Thursday 3 March, the French President, François Hollande, and the British Prime Minister, David Cameron, called for the British to be properly informed of the consequences of the UK leaving the European Union.
“We need to tell the truth. There will be consequences if the United Kingdom leaves the European Union”, said Hollande, referring to an impact on the single market, the London financial markets and individuals. Cameron called upon his countrymen to heed the warnings of friends such as New Zealand and Canada, and the employer organisations, on the consequences of a victory of the 'no' vote to keeping the United Kingdom in the EU, at the referendum of Thursday 23 June. Arguing that these warnings are part of a “grand conspiracy” aiming to mislead the British is “just nonsense”, he said.
The day before, the British government published a report on possible alternatives to membership of the European Union, looking at the example of non-EU member states such as Norway, Switzerland and Turkey, which do have contractual arrangements with the Union. “We need to assess the benefits offered by any alternative model against what the UK's membership of the EU gives us now. The UK government believes that no existing model outside the EU comes close to providing the same balance of advantages and influence that we get from the UK's current status inside the EU”, the report concludes.
The document lists the consequences of the United Kingdom leaving the EU, which include: - losing influence in drafting European rules, which the country would have to apply anyway, space in order to keep its access to the single market; - losing preferential access to the 53 third-country markets with which the EU has concluded trade agreements; - the need to accept the freedom of movement of individuals in exchange for total access to the single market; - in order to preserve the rights of British citizens residing in the EU, the UK would almost certainly have to accept reciprocal arrangements for their citizens in the UK.
The British government points out that Norway does not have access to the single market for its agricultural and fishery products, or to the third-country markets with which the EU has trade agreements in place. No bilateral agreement signed with the EU gives the third country concerned (e.g. Switzerland) full access to the single market for its own services, and the British economy is 80% dependent on services. In the absence of an immediate contractual agreement with the Union (negotiations for this could take ten years), trade negotiations with the 27 countries of the EU would be based on WTO rules. This situation would constitute a “major economic shock”, the British government warns. The EU countries would have to impose customs duty on imports of British products. At the same time, the United Kingdom would have to choose between raising its customs tariffs on European imports, which would lead to the country losing attractiveness, or reducing this duty, leading to a loss of revenue for the country.
The report is available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/alternatives-to-membership-possible-models-for-the-united-kingdom-outside-the-european-union (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion with Solenn Paulic)