Brussels, 17/02/2016 (Agence Europe) - Towards the end of the afternoon on Thursday 17 February, the EU28 will start intense negotiations on the British question in the hope of obtaining an agreement the next day on the terms of the 'contract' sealing the renewed relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom. If successful, it will then be for British Prime Minister David Cameron to convince the citizens of his country to remain in the EU, in a referendum which will reportedly take place on 23 June.
Whilst recent days have been given over to bilateral meetings between the main players (see EUROPE 11491), the European leaders will have to resolve a series of outstanding points of the future decision of the European Council, which will constitute a binding inter-governmental agreement upon all the member states. The controversial issues include the wording of the principle of an ever-closer Union, the perimeter for the safeguard mechanism to apply to the payment of British social benefits to European migrant workers, and the provisions on the integration of the eurozone, with most member states refusing to allow any right of veto to be handed to London.
On the safeguard mechanism for social benefits to migrant workers, there is consensus that this “clause should be temporary” and that its aim should be to limit access of workers from the EU newly arriving on the British labour market to benefits related to employment for a total maximum period of four years. However, the details of this have still to be negotiated. Consensus has also emerged to adjust this clause to the specific case of the United Kingdom, although its wording in the final document will have to fit in with the need not to refer to any member state in particular by name.
Additionally, on the export of child benefit out of the United Kingdom by migrant workers, the United Kingdom wants this to “apply to nationals already on its territory, in other words to 500,000 children in the EU, including 100,000 Polish children”, diplomats stressed. Some member states, among them Poland, want this option to apply only to newcomers. In the view of other delegations, it is also unthinkable that this limitation mechanism (bringing the benefits into line with the economic level of the country of origin of the migrant worker where his or her children remain or with the level of benefits received in that country) could also be extended to other types of benefit, such as pensions, according to other diplomatic sources. The final document may take this requirement into account.
As for the principle of the ever-closer Union, this is essentially a political clash and is mainly being fought between the UK and the countries of Benelux plus Spain, Portugal and Italy. In general, “this is a subject where many feel that the United Kingdom shouldn't meddle in something that has nothing to do with it”, one of the above sources explained.
On the eurozone and economic governance, the prime issue to be resolved for countries such as France is as follows: non-eurozone countries should not have any right of veto over integration within the eurozone, or apply less stringent rules whilst enjoying access to the single market. The leaders will have to decide how many non-eurozone countries will need to come together in order to bring a specific legislative question before the European Council.
According to another national diplomatic source, as regards the debate on the relationship between eurozone members and non-members, “there is some good news: the factual description of the currency and currencies within the EU is correct. Cameron's initial request to recognise the fact that the EU is a union of multiple currencies is no longer on the table”. Another “positive point”, according to this source, is that the “text makes it possible to deepen the economic and monetary union with member states which so desire. The United Kingdom has no wish to put any obstacles in front of any such deepening”.
Berlin gets behind British requests. At the Bundestag on Wednesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel sent out a positive signal to Cameron, stating that many reforms called for by London were justified. “It's not just a matter of the specific interests of the British over certain issues. Quite the reverse. Many points are justified and understandable”, she said, AFP reports.
Even regarding the sensitive issue of limiting social benefits for nationals of other EU countries, Merkel gives Cameron her backing. “It is clear that each member state has to be able to protect its social system from abuse”. In a similarly conciliatory vein, she also agreed that “member states which do not have the euro as their currency should not be overlooked when it comes to issues that are important to them”. “We have to avoid discrimination (…) and there is no contradiction here with the fact that the economic and monetary union also has to be able to continue to make its own decisions autonomously.”
On the eve of the European Council, its president stressed how hard it would be to reach an agreement. “I have to state frankly: there is still no guarantee that we will reach an agreement. We differ on some political issues and I am fully aware that it will be difficult to overcome them”, Donald Tusk said on Wednesday 17 February, in his letter of invitation to his opposite numbers. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic with Jan Kordys, Sophie Petitjean and Mathieu Bion)