Brussels, 27/01/2016 (Agence Europe) - A new study carried out by Bern University's World Trade Institute (WTI) and unveiled by the American Chamber of Commerce to the European Union (AmCham EU) on Wednesday 27 January, underlines that the future free trade agreement between the EU and US (TTIP) will deliver a range of economic and social benefits for EU citizens and companies, and will give both partners a unique opportunity to work on joint solutions for global rules.
The study (available at: http://goo.gl/WBt0RR ) shows that reducing barriers to the transatlantic trade and investment partnership agreement (TTIP) and aligning EU-US regulatory practices could result in a permanent boost to member state incomes, significant export growth, and a range of consumer benefits. It also shows that TTIP would be very useful for SMEs, which have greater difficulty than large companies in overcoming regulatory barriers. In addition, the study argues that TTIP would ensure a race to the top on labour, environmental, and health and safety standards on both sides of the Atlantic.
According to the study, in macro-economic terms, TTIP is expected to lead to permanent increases in GDP levels for all member states except one (Malta), permanent increases in exports and wages for all member states, a reduction in consumer prices in most member states, and a slight decline in income inequality in Europe. TTIP's economic benefits would nevertheless be shared unequally between the biggest beneficiaries (Lithuania, Austria, Belgium and Ireland) and those that would gain less (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Estonia) or that would experience a marginal contraction in GDP (Malta).
In terms of gain in GDP, Lithuania would be the biggest beneficiary (+1.6%), ahead of Ireland (+1.3%). The countries hit by the crisis (Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal) would derive significant benefits, whilst Malta, which mainly trades with China, would be the only loser (-0.3%).
Gains in exports for the 28 EU member states would range from +5% for Cyprus to +48% for Sweden, +64% for Austria and +116% for Slovakia. Gains in wages would be recorded in all member states for highly qualified workers (reaching +1.4% in Ireland and Lithuania) and in 25 of the 28 member states for poorly qualified workers (reaching +1.6% in Ireland). TTIP would also lead to a reduction in consumer prices in the large majority of member states, reaching -0.9% in Lithuania.
At the sectoral level, the biggest gains for EU countries are expected in the sectors of manufactured goods, water transport, insurance services, processed foods, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and motor vehicles. By contrast, TTIP could lead to a decline in the European sectors of machinery, metals, metal products and transport equipment.
According to the WTI, TTIP would guarantee that the EU could keep high standards on social, environmental and consumer protection. It would have particularly positive benefits for SMEs and would not be expected to harm the EU's internal market but, rather, would strengthen it. On the environmental level, TTIP could lead to an increase in carbon emissions, but this could be greatly mitigated by increased trade in environmental goods and services. TTIP would also provide the opportunity to create a 'gold standard' in trade agreements for investment protection, through the implementation of a modern investor-state dispute settlement mechanism ensuring the right of states to regulate in certain legitimate public interest areas, providing more objective arbitration and less abuse. In addition, limited labour mobility would be expected between sectors. (Original version in French by Emmanuel Hagry)