WTO revises its outlook downwards for world trade growth in 2015. - On Wednesday 30 October, economists from the World Trade Organisation (WTO) revised the outlook for 2015 world trade growth downwards from April. They also lowered their estimate for 2016. For the current year, the rise in goods trade volume will be 2.8%, compared with 3% forecast five months ago. For 2016, the forecasts drop from 4% to 3.9%. If these projections are realised, this will be the fourth consecutive year in which international trade growth has fallen below 3%. Several trends occurring in the global economy in the first half of 2015 explain this fall in optimism. In addition to weak growth in the global economy, it is especially the fall in imports in China, Brazil and other emerging economies that darken the outlook for global trade growth. Added to this are falling prices for oil and other primary commodities, volatility in financial markets and uncertainty over the changing stance of monetary policy in the USA. Asia is where the WTO strongly reviewed its forecast for 2015 growth downwards. In April, export growth was still estimated at 5% in this region, but it was brought back to 3.1% in September due to the fall in intra-regional trade, which was weighed down by economic slowdown in China. The forecasts for the region's import growth follow the same downwards slope: from 5% in April, they were brought back to 2.6% in September, once again because of the economic situation in China, where imports have slowed, having an effect on the whole region. The outlook for import growth in Central and South America for 2015 is also pessimistic. Already negative in April (-0.5%), growth is expected to fall to -5.6%, according to September forecasts. This worsening is linked to the economic recession in Brazil, which is connected to political instability. For the second quarter of this year alone, Brazil's imports plummeted by 13% over a year. (Original version in French by Isabelle Lamberty)