Brussels, 08/05/2015 (Agence Europe) - EU Economic and Financial Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici had hoped three weeks ago to see an agreement on the Greek question at the Eurogroup meeting on Monday 11 May, but the upcoming meeting of eurozone finance ministers will simply assess progress to date.
Quizzed about a potential joint statement that is positive enough to enable the ECB to provide greater flexibility when granting liquidity to Greek banks, a high-ranking EU official could not confirm this on Friday 8 May, saying that any statement there might be would be “neutral.”
The same high-ranking diplomat said that they were still a long way off from a situation when they could say that an agreement was in sight. Progress has been noted about all in the atmosphere of the talks since the reshuffle of the Greek negotiating team. The high-ranking official said that if the process improves, this would lead to better content.
Clarity has not yet been reached on measures in the reform programme inherited from the pervious government (some 30-70%) that Greece either wants to replace or deems acceptable. A member state representative said that the restored discipline over confidentiality regarding the talks from the Brussels Group (the Greek government, the ECB, the IMF and the EFSF) shows that the countries do not have a full overview of progress. No questions on the Brussels Group table have yet been finalised, but the sticking points are well-known (reform of the labour market and pensions).
Agreement is hoped early next month as the Greek bailout ends on 1 July. The parties still need to discuss the monitoring arrangements that will follow Greece's exit from the aid programme, but no talks have yet been scheduled on this question.
It is not certain when Greece will really run out of cash, but it is clear that Athens will repay €750 million to the IMF on 12 May. Another source says there is little clarity about what would happen if Greece defaults on a payment to the IMF.
The economic recovery plan that the Greek finance minister unveiled in Brussels on 7 May was reportedly welcomed with astonishment by the Brussels Group, according to the Wall Street Journal because it is far removed from the Brussels Group discussions. The document foresees the creation of a 'bad bank' to manage non-performing loans, without stating how the bad bank would be financed. The plan counts on economic growth of 0.1% of GDP in 2015 and 2% in 2016, below the European Commission's forecasts of 0.5% and 2.9% respectively (see EUROPE 11308).
Ireland. The ministers will congratulate Ireland for its economic performance now it has exited its bailout. The report on the third post-programme monitoring mission by the troika (European Commission, ECB and IMF) will not be available on Monday (see EUROPE 11307).
Along with a presentation by the Commission of its Spring Economic Outlook, the ministers will discuss extending economic and monetary union (EMU) under the current treaties, explained the high-ranking official. (Elodie Lamer)