Brussels, 08/05/2015 (Agence Europe) - There is now definitely going to be a referendum in the United Kingdom on the new relationship between the latter and the European Union at the end of 2017. This referendum may raise the question of whether the country should still be part of the EU.
This certainty was confirmed by the overall victory of the outgoing Prime Minister, David Cameron, in the general elections on 7 May. The Conservatives obtained an absolute majority (331 seats) and inflicted a severe blow on Ed Miliband's Labour Party (232 Seats). Miliband has subsequently resigned. Nick Clegg, whose Liberal Democrat Party only obtained eight seats compared to 57 in 2010 and Nigel Farage, the leader of UKIP (1 seat), have also resigned. The Scottish Nationalist Party obtained 56 seats.
The President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, called Cameron to congratulate him on this victory on Friday 8 May. Juncker, from Luxembourg, whose candidacy for the Presidency of the European Commission in spring 2014, was robustly opposed by Cameron, is also expected to meet the leader of the Tories very soon. He reiterated the willingness of the Commission to constructively discuss the United Kingdom's demands to be presented to the EU. The Commission spokesperson pointed out that these demands “will be examined objectively and amicably”. Juncker said that by the middle of 2015, he would be in favour of proposing a “fair deal” to the United Kingdom to enable it to remain in the EU.
The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, also congratulated Cameron and underlined the fact that the United Kingdom played “a key role in ensuring that Europe had a sensible programme by putting the emphasis on a competitive economy through an efficient single market, non-obtrusive intervention, openness to trade and a robust foreign policy”. Tusk, from Poland, also indicated that he was counting on the new British government to put forward the case for remaining in the EU and added, “I am convinced that there is no better life outside of the EU for any country. A better Europe is not only in the United Kingdom's interest but also in the interest of every member state”.
Over the past few months, Juncker has continually repeated his refusal to change the European treaties, particularly with regard to the four fundamental freedoms, including Europeans' freedom of movement. On Friday, a number of doors already appeared to be open, particularly at the EPP party. The head of the Conservative group in the European Parliament, Manfred Weber, subsequently suggested that they carry out a reflection on whether or not they should proceed to an extensive reform of the treaty. Weber, from Germany, however, insisted on the fact that freedom of movement should remain an intangible principle. The leader of the ALDE group at the EP, Guy Verhofstadt, from Belgium, was also open to this approach. He stressed that other countries may also have a wish to revise the treaties and even proposed, in Politico, that there could be a reflection carried out on two different EU member statuses: a full EU member status and an associate member status, with access to the internal market, trade rules, financial rules, free movement of citizens but with fewer voting rights and less representation at the Council. The leader of the S&D group at the EP, Gianni Pittella, from Italy, warned Cameron that no concessions would be made on the question of fundamental freedoms.
Without going as far as this, the Commission may initially give Cameron guarantees on free movement, particularly the abuses in the exercising of this freedom, which has provoked a number of speeches in this connection in the United Kingdom. One European source indicated that at the end of 2015, the “Mobility Package” will be introduced by Marianne Thyssen and that “Provisions on abuses to freedom of movement may be included if this is requested by the British”. Although the European Court of Justice has already delivered very precise interpretations of the current texts and ways of preventing benefit fraud in the EU (see EUROPE 11195), this could possibly involve organising a campaign against abuses in a “structured way”, added our European source again. Nonetheless, at this stage, it is difficult to say what the Commission will be proposing because Cameron has not yet clearly defined what he wants to renegotiate.
British requests could possibly be submitted to the European summit in June, given the deadline set out by Cameron for organising a referendum by the end of 2017. According to our source, “it will need to be necessary to propose changes, obtain a majority among the member states” and have these modifications endorsed. If this involves a major constitutional change, it will also be necessary to gauge the member states' appetite for this exercise beforehand. The Commission spokesperson, Margaritis Schinas, explained that when the British demands are submitted, “it will be up to the member states to decide if the time is right for the major constitutional changes or not”. The think tank, Open Europe, believes that the victory of Cameron and the defeat of Farage should provide some breathing space for the debate on the EU and undoubtedly help Cameron to negotiate a raft of reforms with his European partners. (Solenn Paulic)