Reciprocity. Developments in relations between the EU and Russia are ultimately quite clear: both sides are seeking dialogue, instead of the mutual tidal wave of ruinous measures on both sides. There is a certain amount of evidence to support the developments underway.
Jens Stoltenberg, the new Secretary General of NATO, said when he took up his office: "I see no contradiction between a strong NATO and continued efforts to build a constructive relationship with Russia" (see Europe Diplomacy & Defence 735).
For its part, Moscow has chosen to express itself via a semi-official channel: the supplement "Russia beyond the headlines", which is distributed via Western newspapers such as The Daily Telegraph, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Le Figaro and Le Soir. It is not an official organ of the Russian government, as it is published by Rossiyskaia Gazeta; in practice, it is the voice of the authorities, with many details in the edition dated 1 October.
Encouraging indications. To sum up. Gazprom is not in a position to increase its supplies of gas and oil to its European clients, because the coming winter will be particularly cold and the gas company has decided to increase its stocks to 72 billion cubic metres: the European market remains nonetheless a priority, but with new limits. In the longer term, the situation as a whole will move on because the new Russia-China agreement will be phased into practice and work on the construction of the Force of Siberia gas pipeline has begun. As it happens, it will take several years before it is up and running, but the initial message sent out to Europe is loud and clear: Moscow is carving out other outlets so that it is no longer totally reliant on the European market.
There is, however, a positive side to this message. The European market will remain a priority to Moscow, Russian production will increase and all buyers can be satisfied. Dmitri Baranov, Gazprom's chief analyst, explained that the reserves are such that Russia will be able to supply East and West at the same time, and he anticipated that prices for Europe would fall if progress is made on certain key questions not as yet specified …
A strange idea. As we can see, this is a fairly acrobatic exercise, aiming to warn and to reassure at the same time. According to a number of Western analysts, it is the European market which is vital to Gazprom, not the other way round. Paul De Grauwe, lecturer at the London School of Economics, says that sales of gas and oil to the EU "account for more than half of Russia's revenue" and that the EU should not hesitate to suspend its purchases. This is a strange way to assess relations between Europe and Russia, because the current system of measures and counter-measures is very expensive to both sides. The example of agriculture speaks volumes whilst being extremely burdensome. Agricultural disaster. I refer the reader to the results of the meeting of the European agriculture ministers held in Milan, which was exclusively reported on in our bulletin (EUROPE 11166) in an article entitled: "Russian ban drives wedges between EU states". The suspension of Russian buying is disastrous for European agriculture: a proportion of production has been lost, the Community budget is buckling under the additional expenditure; in the meantime, Russia is buying the fruit and vegetables it needs from other places. Other international producers have replaced Europe on a market which it will struggle to win back. In Milan, not a word was spoken about any possible efforts to resume exports to Russia. De Grauwe's suggestions are keenly awaited.
Dialogue to be developed. My conclusion is obvious: Brussels and Moscow must develop the principle of negotiations and dialogue to settle their differences which are, in any case, quite normal and unavoidable. Let us not forget the urgent deadlines (such as the case of the French Mistral vessels produced for Russia), or peace in Ukraine, which remains vital. The arrival of Stoltenberg and the Russian authorities sounding out new cooperation partners should not be neglected, to allow the protagonists to focus their efforts on other, far more dramatic problems in the world. (FR)