Brussels, 18/09/2014 (Agence Europe) - On Thursday 18 September, 4.2 million Scots, a record 97% of the electorate who have registered to vote, will have answered the question “Should Scotland be an independent country?” As they decide yes or no, the Scots will be sealing not only their own fate, but that of the United Kingdom and, potentially, that of the European Union as well.
At seven o'clock in the morning, around 5,000 polling stations opened for this historic referendum and the voters began to turn out, after a campaign of thrills and spills launched by supporters of independence, and joined somewhat later by the Unionists. The polling stations closed late in the evening of 18 September (10.00pm local time). The results of the referendum for each local authority area will not be announced until the early hours of Friday 19 September (between 3.00am and 6.00am), and the final official declaration of the results will be made between 6.30am and 7.30am.
Over the last few weeks, the Yes vote has caught up on, or even overtaken, the No in voting intentions. However, the final opinion polls at midday once again put No in the lead, with 52% to 48% (average of seven surveys carried out between 12 and 17 September, published by the impartial think tank What Scotland Thinks). The only certainty, therefore, is that the result will be extremely close.
The victory for the No side would not be without consequences for Scotland's place in the United Kingdom. Even if defeated, the pro-independence movement will want to bring more power back to Edinburgh, by negotiating a transfer of further competencies. Devolution has already been half-pledged by the British authorities, as a sop to the Scots in the late stages of the campaign and to come to the assistance of the Unionists of the Better Together campaign headed up by Alistair Darling.
In the event that the Yes side wins the referendum, the nationalists of the Scottish National Party in power and led by Alex Salmond have pledged to declare Scotland an independent state within no more than 18 months, in March 2016. This time will be spent negotiating a raft of political, military, diplomatic issues and others, to rethink Edinburgh's relationship with London, and also with the European Union. The pro-independence camp has always been very clear that they wish to remain in the European Union or, more likely, “rejoin it” it, as an independent Scotland would become a third country, according to the reading of the treaties by the European institutions thus far. This matter is a source of confusion to observers, as there is no European legislation to provide for a case of “re-accession”. There is no doubt that a victory for the yes vote would put the spotlight on the European institutions. The European Commission has never moved away from its reservations at what it sees as an intense process and to the very end declined to prepare for the eventuality of an independent Scotland, until the results have been announced.
The ballot could also be a dress rehearsal for another independence referendum announced this autumn by the autonomous region of Catalonia in Spain, where all eyes are on the democratic process underway in Scotland. The difference is that this referendum has London's blessing, whereas Madrid is refusing to authorise the referendum (see other article). The Catalan pro-independence leader, Artur Mas, has promised to comment on the results of the Scottish referendum. (MD)