Brussels, 08/09/2014 (Agence Europe) - In a complete reversal in Scotland this weekend, a YouGov poll published in the Sunday Times puts the Yes campaign for independence in the lead, with 51%, over the No, 49%. While caution has to be applied to an opinion poll of this sort, ten days before the referendum on 18 September (2% margin of error), London has now been sent a wake-up call. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne immediately announced that devolution plans would be announced in the coming days, with a transfer of powers, probably in tax raising, spending and social security, to Edinburgh. Too late, say those calling for Scottish independence.
MEP Alyn Smith's reading of the situation. MEP Alyn Smith (Greens/EFA, UK), a member of the Scottish National Party, believes that what is on offer “has no substance and no credibility” (our translation throughout) when Westminster has “had 300 years” to transfer greater powers to Scotland. At a conference organised on Monday 8 September by the Centre for European Policy Studies, Smith spoke of the incredible “inclusive democratic revolution taking place”. He argued that, though it has existed only since 1999, the Scottish Parliament had proved its worth and now merited the greater powers that independence can bring. Necessarily this will mean being part of the Europe, he said: “We have been a member of the EU for 40 years, we are part of the European project and we want to remain part of it”. He stressed, too, that Scotland would be a “constructive” European state. However, if the Yes campaign were to win the referendum, this would be unprecedented and European law has no provision for such a case. Smith, a lawyer by profession, spoke of a revision of the Treaty, on the basis of Article 48, as the only option. He expects the European capitals to respect a democratic decision and to give their approval. He pointed out that “a hypothetical exit would have to be negotiated just as much as staying in”. However, on the issue of the currency, Smith sees no other option than “sterlingisation”. Joining the euro is not an option on the table and, when it is, a referendum would be required, he pointed out.
Commission reserve. Although the scenario of the secession of a country within the European Union is becoming increasingly a possibility, without counting the Catalan referendum planned for 9 November, the European Commission maintains its reserve. Spokesperson Pia Ahrenkilde made the point that the EU does not want to influence the on-going democratic process, which is a domestic matter. The future of Scotland still has “questions which do not yet have answers”. The Commission would appear, then, not to be looking to address this legal vacuum which will become all the wider in the event of declarations of independence in the near future. As Alyn Smith made clear, “even in the event of a No vote, sooner or later the EU will be faced with the issue of independence”. (MD)