Brussels, 27/08/2014 (Agence Europe) - A representative from the European Social-Democrat family to replace Catherine Ashton as the high representative of the EU, and a figure from the new member countries to succeed Herman Van Rompuy as head of the European Council - this is the configuration, (and especially a Federica Mogherini-Donald Tusk or Federica Mogherini-Valdis Dombrovskis duo - Italian foreign affairs minister, Polish prime minister and former Latvian prime minister respectively), which was being tipped by several media on Wednesday 27 August, just days ahead of the European Council on Saturday 30 August that will be dedicated to the appointments.
Although the summer has not enabled the future president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, to make headway on the puzzle of female representation in his college of commissioners, the situation has clearly evolved as regards the top jobs, and time has worked in Mogherini's favour again (who had previously received the support of France and Germany on 16 July). Mogherini, who on paper had the majority of countries in her favour, had not been able to garner the support of all within the European Council. Some countries had even criticised her alleged she was too close to the Kremlin. The Malaysia Airlines plane crash at the end of July - which was attributed to pro-Russian rebels - and the new economic sanctions against Moscow decided upon in the aftermath of this plane crash, do not seem to have harmed Mogherini, who has gone on to reassert herself against Kristalina Georgieva from Bulgaria.
Another big change that has taken place over the summer and that was reported by the British press on Wednesday 27 August is that UK Prime Minister David Cameron - who for the last two years has continually criticised the massive influx of European migrants (particularly Polish) in his country - now reportedly backs Donald Tusk for Van Rompuy's post. According to British newspaper The Guardian on 27 August, Cameron would rely on Tusk to counteract Juncker's federalism. Nevertheless, the British press reported after the summit on 16 July that Cameron opposed Tusk's candidacy for the presidency of the European Council - on the grounds that this could prevent EU reform plans in relation to the free movement of migrants.
The appointment of former Latvian prime minister Valdis Dombrovskis (who supported Juncker's appointment at the Commission) to the head of the European Council is also being mentioned. Like Tusk, Dombrovskis has the advantage of fulfilling the geographical and political criteria required for this post - with the 28 EU member states being largely in agreement on granting the post of high representative to the Socialist family.
The chances of Helle Thorning-Schmidt, Denmark's Social-Democrat prime minister, succeeding Van Rompuy could therefore depend on the choice of the high representative. However, the European Liberals are still looking to pinch Van Rompuy's post.
Avoiding an overly long summit. According to some sources, the appointment of Tusk (who has not declared himself a candidate) to the presidency of the European Council, is not necessarily the most obvious. “Tusk has difficulty with his English and his French”, says a national diplomatic source. This could therefore pose problems in terms of international representation. Concerns as regards a European foreign policy line that might be too pro-Russian have not totally disappeared either.
This is hardly enough to make the summit result in failure, however. One thing that is certain in all the uncertainty is Van Rompuy's intention to come to the summit with a nominations ticket that has already been well prepared and is likely to be approved quickly. He has been conducting intense consultations with the member states, and the idea is to avoid “long discussions on this subject”, says a source. This is all the more important as the 28 EU member states will also have to discuss the situation in Ukraine, Iraq and Gaza - not to mention the highly probable discussions as to the distribution of portfolios in the Juncker Commission. (SP)