Brussels, 21/05/2014 (Agence Europe) - The European elections begin on Thursday 22 May in the UK and the Netherlands - two countries with delicate relations with the European Union, whose nationals are also called to vote in local elections. In both cases, and in line with current electoral rules, the results of these countries will not become known until 11.00pm on Sunday 25 May when the last polling stations have closed their doors in Italy. The British and Dutch will elect 73 and 26 MEPs respectively.
According to estimates published by website Electionista, the two countries are likely to have low turnout for the European vote - estimated at 38.5% for the UK and 36.5% for the Netherlands.
The debate is nevertheless passionate in these countries - animated in the UK by anti-European UKIP leader Nigel Farage, and in the Netherlands by populist Geert Wilders, who leads of the Freedom Party (PVV). With their radical discourse - leave the EU, control European immigration (for Farage), and leave the EU and the euro, close the borders, fight against Islamisation, and recover the money paid to the EU (for Wilders) - both men feature in a good position in electors' voting intentions. On 19 May, UKIP was estimated to take 24% of the votes - in second place after the Labour Party (28%) and ahead of David Cameron's Conservatives (21%), the Greens (12%) and the Liberal Democrats (10%). In the Netherlands, the PVV was estimated to be in the lead in April - with 18.1% of the vote, ahead of Mark Rutte's VVD Liberals and D66, which were estimated as having 16.2% and 15.7% of the vote respectively.
Whatever the election results on Sunday, this European election comes in the UK and the Netherlands against a backdrop of growing doubt about the European project, conveyed by the political leaders themselves. In January 2013, Cameron announced a recast of the UK's relations with the EU through a referendum planned for 2017 if he is re-elected in the 2015 UK general election. And since then, there has been no let-up in his criticism of the free movement of Europeans, and he has made constant promises of hardening the conditions for claiming social benefits. Cameron also wants to obtain a clause protecting the UK from “an ever closer union” with the EU - but unlike Farage, Cameron does not believe the UK would be better off outside the EU.
In the Netherlands, without reporting at length on Wilders' extremes (on 20 May, he once again cut up a European flag in front of the European Parliament in Brussels), the leaders - like the Labour minister for foreign affairs, Frans Timmermans - have also criticised the way the EU works and called for it to be reformed, particularly through a more streamlined Commission which intervenes less in national life. Timmermans has also proposed the idea of a red card, which would enable a third of national parliaments to invalidate European legislation - an idea which has furthermore been picked up in London.
Nevertheless, this growing distrust was not a success for the PVV at the last municipal elections in March as the PVV lost votes in the (two) towns where it was running - The Hague and Almere. What is more, according to an opinion poll, if parliamentary elections were organised in the Netherlands today, the populists would come in third place - behind the D66 and the VVD. In the UK, a recent opinion poll has shown that, while being very negative towards the EU, the British do not want to leave it. According to this poll of 15 May, 54% of the British would vote in favour of keeping their country in the EU if a referendum was held today, and 37% would vote in favour of the UK's exit.
In spite of all this, the upcoming European elections are expected to benefit the populist parties widely - with Nigel Farage's European group, EFD, even being ranked as the fourth political force in the European Parliament, according to a PollWatch estimate on 20 May. As far as the PVV is concerned, it is expected to be able to form an alliance with other Right formations - including the French Front National - in order to create a new group.
At a press conference on Wednesday, the EPP candidate for the presidency of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, called on Europeans to turn out and use their right to vote - but to give their vote to the truly European parties and “not to the eurosceptics, fascists and xenophobes”. The European Commission refused steadfastly to make any comment, having no desire to interfere in the choice of voters. “The vote does not belong to us”, said a source, underlining that European Commission President José Manuel Barroso has already traced the outline of what the EU should be in his last speech in Berlin, and saying that there was now a need for the Commission to stand apart.
The British and Dutch will be followed on 23 May by the Irish and Czechs (where voting takes place over two days), then on 24 May by the Cypriots, Maltese and Slovaks. The European elections will be held in all the other EU member states on Sunday 25 May. (SP)