A certain caution between Europe and Russia. A little attention to the realities on the ground, besides the declarations, shows that the dramatisation of the Ukrainian crisis is sometimes excessive. In particular, a radical break must be avoided in the cooperation between Europe and Russia - the reasons for leaving the way open for compromises and for a reasonable modus vivendi are plentiful, and the key actors are well aware of this. Even last week, the two parties left the door open to the possibilities for collaboration.
The case of the South Stream gas pipeline can be cited as an example - the technical discussions between the two parties, which have been ongoing for some time now to clarify certain areas of disagreement, were continued in Moscow last Friday, as planned. This is just a small example that shows the case in point. European Commissioner for Energy Günther Oettinger had announced that the meeting would be postponed, but a Commission spokesperson then stated that the commissioner's statement had political implications while the meeting in question was technical (see EUROPE 11038). South Stream will link Russia to Bulgaria, of course, and will then be divided into two branches - one to the north, crossing Serbia, Hungary and Slovenia in the direction of Austria, the other to the south, crossing Greece in the direction of Italy and thus avoiding Ukraine. The technical meeting was therefore conducted as normal in Moscow. This demonstrates that the dialogue was not suspended - even two days before the referendum in Crimea!
The legal dispute over Crimea. The differences between Europe and Russia have now taken on the character of a legal dispute on the legitimacy of the referendum by which the people of Crimea chose to become a Russian province. Vladimir Putin informed Angela Merkel (she speaks Russian and the dialogue between the two leaders has been fairly frequent in the past) of the result of Sunday's referendum, underlining that it “fully respected international law and especially the UN charter, which sets out the principle of equality and the right of the people to self determination”. At the same time, on the European side (and especially the American side) the legitimacy of the referendum was contested by an impressive number of legal and political arguments - with each party explaining at length the reasons for which the consultation in Crimea was valid or not. The two opposing theses are based on very clever legal aspects and on prominent political precedents. The EU's position is not, of course, strengthened by the case of Kosovo, which is recognised as an autonomous country by most member states, but not by all…
Commentators who cannot depend on a solid legal basis naturally avoid intervening in the debate, believing it more useful to base their attitude on political and economic considerations. History teaches us that each uses the subtleties of the law according to his own interests. Historians have spoken of examples from the past (the former Czechoslovakia, which is today separated into two states, fortunately without having had to go through conflict; East Timor, South Sudan) and from the future - maybe Scotland or Catalonia? The former Yugoslavia was broken up into a large number of states, but after cruel and painful conflicts, which are partly still not over.
Is the EU really compact? The differences between the countries of the EU must not be overlooked. They have been overcome through efforts trying to define common European positions - but they still continue and can be observed every day. How can we forget that 30% of the gas and oil that the EU consumes comes from Russia? Moscow, on its side, can't forget that the EU, and still more NATO, have gradually absorbed a vast part of the old USSR. If, progressively, Ukraine - as it was last week - becomes a member of the EU and then of NATO, both the EU and NATO would be virtually installed on Russian territory.
The EU must understand Moscow's motivation - on condition, of course, that Russia, on its side, understands the interests and requirements of Europe.
This column will return to the specific position of the USA.
(FR)