IEA says energy demand will increase by 35% by 2035. - According to the most recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global energy consumption is expected to experience a further increase of 35% by 2035, despite a slowdown in economic growth of 1.6% a year over the 2010-2020 period and by 1% a year over the 2020-2035 period. Energy savings made in different countries (Europe, US, Japan and China) are not expected to be enough to compensate for the expected high demand. Fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal) currently account for 81% of global consumption and will continue to ensure most of our energy needs (75% in 2035). Oil will remain the main source of fuel, despite a slight decrease from the current 32% to 27% in 20 years' time. This demand is particularly related to the transport sector. The number of cars is expected to double by 2035 and the transport of goods by road will increase rapidly. This sector alone will account for 40% of the rise in energy demand. This will occur despite countervailing price trends and the price for black gold will remain high. The IEA is forecasting a price of $125 per barrel in 2035, as opposed to the current $110. Unsurprisingly, it will be developing countries, above all, that will boost the growth in demand, especially in China, which will account for 33% of the IEA increase forecast. With a 60% rise in energy consumption between 2010 and 25, China consolidates its first place among energy hungry countries and is ahead of the number two in the league table, the US, by a long chalk. China will use all available energy mixes: oil, gas, nuclear and renewable energies. India is the third-largest energy consumer and the second biggest contributor to growth in energy consumption. Its consumption will double by 2035. Its energy mix will remain dominated by coal. Boosted by rapid development and a new political regime in Iraq, the Middle East is also largely expected to contribute to this growth. According to the IEA, the US will become the biggest oil producing country in the world by 2020 and will overtake Saudi Arabia. This situation will enable it to reduce its dependency on oil, which currently stands at 50% of its energy requirements. This will decline to 30% by 2025. Since 1940, the North American continent has been a net importer of oil but by 2030 it will once again become a net exporter. The US still currently imports 20% of its energy needs but the situation changed with the discovery of shale gas and oil which has been used since 2010. Gross production in the US has therefore increased by 6.9 to 8.1 million barrels a day between 2008 and 2011 (including natural liquid gas) according to estimates by the IEA. In comparison, production in Saudi Arabia rose to 11.1 million barrels a day in 2011. The US is expected to reach this level before 2020 when it will begin to decline over the following period to around 9 million barrels a day in 2035. In the field of nonconventional oil (shale gas and oil), US resources are estimated to stand at 35 billion barrels but their exploitation remains controversial, particularly in Europe. If growth in US production continues in this way, US industry will not only become more competitive, thanks to reduced energy prices in its territory but relations between the US and the Middle East will also be subject to ratification, explains the IEA. The latter forecasts that in 2035, Asia will absorb 90% of exports from the Middle East. (IL/trans/fl)