In-depth changes. Relations between the EU and the countries of the southern shore of the Mediterranean (see my previous column) cannot be taken separately from the developments which are spilling over considerably from this geographical area, in particular: (a) the links between the countries of this southern shore and the rest of the Arab world; (b) the growth of Turkey's presence and importance in the region as a whole.
I have always seen the Union of the Mediterranean (or for the Mediterranean, UfM) as an artificial construct. Originally, on the European side, only the member states with a shoreline on this sea were supposed to belong to it, an almost unbelievable initial error which was, quite logically, rejected by the member states of the EU which would have been excluded from it, with Germany at their head. This early mistake was corrected, but the UfM kept up only the appearance of a union: in one corner was the EU, a proper union of states all speaking with one voice, and in the other, an agglomeration of states with difficult or limited relations among themselves, including certain countries of the southern shore which were in conflict, and the radically different countries of the Adriatic Sea. Turkey, reluctant to start with (its ambitions as far as the EU is concerned consisted of accession), ended up giving in to pressure from France when it agreed, for the sake of form, to become a member of this heterogeneous group. This mass of countries in no way corresponded to the term Union, because it was made up of two radically different parties: on the one hand, a real unity, the EU; on the other, a large number of countries with no real links to each other and, consequently, no common voice to negotiate as a bloc. The bureaucratic plank continues to exist, the objectives have nothing in common with each other: the Adriatic countries have an eye to EU accession, the Arab countries are developing relations amongst themselves which, in many cases, bear no relation to their Mediterranean shoreline.
Turkey returns to its full multi-form role. In this context, Turkey's role is specific and vital. I'm not referring to its bilateral relations with the EU, because I'm not changing my opinion on this point: Turkey will never be a member state of the EU and I have no intention of repeating my reasons for believing this. In fact, the country's role is growing as Turkey asserts itself as an autonomous power; and the cultural and historical reasons for this are at least as important as the political and economic ones. Behind this Turkish revolution lies the rebirth of its links with the Arab world, in terms both of religion and culture. It is a historical break which is healing.
We are not going to rewrite the history of Turkey itself, with the end, or the radical relaxation, of the Atatürk period. This era gave rise to a secular state (closure of Islamic schools, replacement of sharia law with secular codes, adoption of the Latin alphabet instead of the Arabic one, etc); subsequently, whilst hanging on to some aspects of the Atatürk revolution, Turkey partly returned to a moderate Islamic regime further to the democratic elections of 2002, which has been confirmed three times by the electorate. With Ahmet Davutoglu in charge of foreign affairs, Turkey's interest in the Arab world (once part of the Ottoman Empire) has developed considerably. This rapprochement was mutual, with Turkish foreign policy often supporting Arab stances against Israel and various others. And the religious and cultural elements have, quite logically, played a leading role in this. There is no point stressing the religious identity: it is there for all to see.
Cultural rapprochement. Regarding the cultural and also the social aspect, I base my observations on those of a colleague, Bernardo Valli, who has studied these developments and uses the example of a Turkish soap opera, which has been translated and broadcast throughout the Arab world, winning over 100 million viewers between the Red Sea and the Atlantic! Tens of thousands of newborn boys have been given the name of the soap's hero; the heroine's hairstyle is being copied everywhere; T-shirts bearing the protagonists' names sell in their millions. The relationship between the two main characters in the love story is complicated, but based on mutual respect, with equal rights, stressing the sensitivity of each of them to the other's feelings. This is not yet the actual situation in the Arab world in its relationships between men and women, but Mr Valli argues that the soap is making a contribution towards Arab-Turkish rapprochement and is helping to “prepare ground favourable to Turkish diplomatic activities”. This is a symptom of a historic reconciliation and of the “Arabs' return among the descendants of the Ottoman Empire”.
This interpretation may seem a bit over the top, or lead to misgivings in various of the Arab countries which have won back their freedom. In Turkey itself, reality is more mixed: the “civilian power/military world” conflict has not been fully resolved and the Kurdish issue persists. But the image of Turkey as a model to build a bridge between Islam and democracy, whilst preserving its own history, is significant.
(FR/transl.fl)