Brussels, 13/01/2012 (Agence Europe) - The global economic crisis has changed the perception of China shared by many Western countries. It is no longer viewed as an unruly and disruptive pupil, but rather as a potential financial paymaster. In a European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE) policy brief published this week, researcher Guy de Jonquières seeks to identify and describe the domestic and foreign policy challenges facing China in its new global role.
Though China's GDP is likely to exceed that of the Unite States within the next 10 to 20 years, China will still have to face the challenges of changing its growth model as it becomes obsolescent, the growing pressure of labour costs, the lack of diversification and its need to climb the value-added chain. However, to reform the country's own policy, Chinese leaders will, de Jonquières says, have to take tough decisions that will the vested interests in China's economic and political system.
Domestic policies will have to face up to the rapid escalation of social unrest among the Chinese people. The growing number of “mass incidents” across China, the expanding number of people who have access to internet and the free exchange of information via micro blogs, Twitter and other networks on which 80 million Chinese internet users (“netizens”) express their grievances represent a threat to the existing system, the author says, adding that, while the Communist Party is still respected among older citizens, the level of corruption is alarming and has started to bother younger generations. Chinese leaders are still a long way from formulating a coherent response to the demands of an increasingly impatient public.
As is the case in its domestic policy, China's foreign relations are rooted in one fundamental imperative, de Jonquières argues: keeping the regime in power. The government is prepared to do whatever is necessary to maintain rapid growth by keeping export markets open, securing access to energy and natural resources worldwide and preventing the economy from being blown off course by external shock. Since China has few military allies, its international influence is exercised largely through the medium of money and the language of brute force. However, the increasing dependence on the global economy will sooner or later become too great for China to remain on the diplomatic sidelines, the author reasons.
There is no evidence of any broad-based popular demand for democracy, yet the pressure for change is increasing, de Jonquières believes. He feels the government's legitimacy is coming under strain from several directions. The Chinese Communist Party has not, as yet, formulated a clear, effective response strategy to the public order, economic and social and international diplomacy challenges. For the rest of the world, the only realistic option is to continue trying to engage China pragmatically, without conceding on essential principles. (EH/transl.rt)