Brussels, 15/12/2011 (Agence Europe) - The EU has set itself the target of cutting polluting emissions by over 80% between now and 2050, which means Europe's energy production will have to be almost carbon-free. How to achieve this without disrupting energy supplies and competitiveness is the question answered by the Energy Roadmap 2050, presented by the European Commission on Thursday 15 December. The roadmap is based on a series of scenarios, and describes the consequences of a carbon-free energy system. It should allow member states to make the required energy choices and create a stable business climate for private investment, especially until 2030. Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger told the press that the roadmap is a basis for discussion for all interested parties. He went on to hope that the debate would not last too long, as decisions must be taken by 2013 or 2014 at the very latest in order to ensure planning security for investors.
The analysis contained in the roadmap is based on illustrative scenarios that, according to various configurations, combine the four main ways to achieve decarbonisation (energy efficiency, renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage). None are likely to materialise but all scenarios clearly show a set of “'no regrets' options for the coming years”, the Commission states in a press release. In other terms, a number of elements have a positive impact in all circumstances, and thus define key outcomes.
It would thus seem that the decarbonisation of the energy system is technically and economically feasible. All decarbonisation scenarios allow achieving the emission reduction target and can be less costly than current policies in the long-run. At worst, Oettinger said, “cost will be the same if we do something or if we do nothing”. Furthermore, the commissioner went on to say, “it makes sense to invest right now”. He specified that investment decisions for setting up infrastructure necessary by 2030 must be taken now, as the infrastructure built 30 or 40 years ago must be replaced. Acting immediately would allow the most costly changes in 20 years' time to be avoided. The Commission considers that, in any case, the EU's energy evolution requires modernisation and much more flexible infrastructure such as cross border interconnections, “intelligent” electricity grids and modern low-carbon technologies to produce, transmit and store energy.
Also critical are energy efficiency and renewable energy. Irrespective of the particular energy mix chosen, higher energy efficiency and important rising shares of renewables are necessary to meet the CO2 targets in 2050. Oettinger said a proposal on energy efficiency is to be put forward. On the subject of renewable energies, he said the debate on a binding objective of, for example, 30% of renewables in the energy mix for 2003 would be fascinating, adding that a decision on this binding objective is expected to be taken within two years.
The different scenarios show that electricity is called upon to play a more important role today. Gas, oil, coal and nuclear energy appear in all scenarios in varying proportions as they allow member states to maintain flexibility in their energy mix, on condition that a well connected internal market is achieved without delay.
Current investment will make it possible to ensure better prices in the future. Electricity prices are bound to rise until 2030, but can fall thereafter thanks to lower costs of supply, saving policies and improved technology. “The costs will be outweighed by the high level of sustainable investment brought into the European economy, the related local jobs, and the decreased import dependency. All scenarios get to decarbonisation with no major differences in terms of overall costs or security of supply implications”, the Commission states in a press release.
Finally, the Commission is convinced that a European approach will result in lower costs and security of supply compared to national parallel schemes. This includes a common energy market which should be completed by 2014.
The Greens Group at the European Parliament feels the Commission's proposals are “disappointing” and has called for a binding target of 45% in renewables in the energy mix of the EU. Frauke Thies from Greenpeace, cited by AFP, deplored the fact that the Commission is tempted to overestimate the importance of coal and nuclear energy to meet the satisfaction of Poland and France. (OL/transl.jl)