Brussels, 12/10/2011 (Agence Europe) - MedPro, a consortium of 17 institutions from 13 countries, coordinated by the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), has offered the EU and its Mediterranean partners a number of scenarios to break the current deadlock in the Euro-Mediterranean dialogue. “The southern Mediterranean region is at a historical turning point following the unprecedented uprisings that ended many decades of repressive authoritarian regimes.” Before the “revolutions”, “the 'business as usual' scenario prevailed in a blend of un-sustainability and partial Euro-Mediterranean cooperation”, writes Dr Rym Ayadi, MedPro coordinator. The European Union's policies towards the region were equally unsatisfactory, she writes, as they failed to drive the region towards a sustainable future at a time when radical changes are taking place throughout the world (China, the Gulf, the United States). MedPro proposes a range of scenarios to 2030.
The first of the possible scenarios is the retention of the status quo, but this would cause a fault line to develop between the two shores of the Mediterranean. The second lies in integration into a sort of European Economic Area (EEA). This “Euro-Mediterranean Common Union” (EMCU) would form an integrated region with a common market. The sharp differences between partner countries would appear to diminish the advantages. The Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) would have a role to play, but its importance would wane over time as countries join in the EMCU. The third scenario is a “Euro-Mediterranean Alliance”, where the two regions remain separate and may or may not involve African and Middle Eastern countries. Under such a scenario, there is no perspective (or need) for membership of the European Economic Area. As a result, the European neighbourhood policy would become “obsolete” if it were not rethought to integrate this vision.
“Almost six months on since the Arab revolts, countries are still beset by uncertainty, with opposing forces interacting without clear targets or direction.” The European response to these events remains “timid, short-term and with no coherent vision”. Hence, moving to a successful and sustainable future, be it under the Euro-Med Union or the Euro-Med Alliance scenario, “does not seem very plausible today”, unless serious action towards one or the other path is taken without delay. (FB/transl.rt)