China and India not overly affected by global economic slowdown. According to IMF forecasts published last week, China and India are maintaining spectacular growth rates, whilst developed countries are experiencing a generalised slowdown. China will have a 9.5% growth rate this year, barely 0.8% less than last year. Next year, it could experience growth of 9%. Drivers of growth will no longer exclusively be exports, which will suffer from the stagnation of western markets, although still experiencing impressive progress (24% in the period August 2010 - August 2011). Public investment is increasing at the same pace, following a massive recovery plan in 2009, equivalent to 14% of GDP. Consumption rates in Chinese households are huge, as illustrated by rising imports and a rate of inflation that is still a source of concern to the government. India is also experiencing confident economic dynamism. The country is regularly one or two points behind its Chinese rival and is in sixth place in the global economic rankings but it is expected to experience growth of 8% this year, which is slightly up on the rate for last year. Nonetheless, this result still does not match the objectives set out by the public authorities, which said they needed between 9-10% growth in order to absorb around 12 million young people arriving on the labour market every year. Alongside these two growing economies, other emerging countries barely slow down and maintain spectacular growth rates. This is the case for the oil monarchies of the Gulf (almost 7% growth this year in Saudi Arabia). Thanks to its industrial sector, Indonesia is expected to achieve 6.5% growth. In Latin America, countries like Chile, Colombia and Peru continue to experience growth rates of above 5% this year and in 2012, thanks to their liberalisation policies and balanced public finances, they are also expected to achieve the same level of growth. Argentina is also experiencing growth, following many years in the economic doldrums. On the other hand, the economies of other emerging countries are slowing down due to the stagnation of western markets. The IMF has forecast growth rates of between 3-4% this year, equivalent to rates experienced by prosperous western countries. Brazil, for example, has benefited from its exports in raw materials but will experience a backlash due to stagnation on the western markets. Growth in this country is expected to be halved, from 7.5% last year (the best result since the 1970s) to 4%, according to the Brazilian government or 3.5% according to independent experts. This is due to competition from Chinese industrial companies, the over- valuation of the Real and stagnating prices of raw materials. As far as the BRIC countries are concerned (Brazil-Russia-India-China), growth in Russia is expected to be a little more solid than that in Brazil but only just, at a rate of 4% this year and next. This level of growth is deemed insufficient by the Russian government, even though the spectre of recession appears to be discarded, following a catastrophic year in 2009 (a fall of 8% of GDP). As for the other countries of the former USSR, the IMF considers that they are particularly vulnerable to international economic turbulence and could see their recoveries under threat. Among the non-Western emerging countries that have so far been experiencing growth, the slowdown will be most marked in Malaysia (4.5% this year and next), Thailand (3.8%, followed by 4.2%), Mexico (3.4%, followed by 3.1%), Egypt (1.2% followed by 3.5%) and especially South Africa (1.3% in 2011). These developing countries are expected to catch up with the developed countries but at a more moderate rate. In the midst of the economic stagnation affecting Europe, six countries plus Turkey are expected to finish the year on strong growth. At the beginning of the year Ireland was experiencing difficulties but has bounced back in an astonishing way thanks to rising exports (+24% over a 12 month period) in the second quarter. This allows a growth rate of 1.6% in comparison to the previous quarter. Iceland, which has also been lagging far behind, is expected to see GDP growth of 2.2% in 2011, according to the OECD. The Estonian and Latvian economies are also making progress. In the second quarter, Estonia obtained its strongest growth for three and a half years (+8.4% of GDP). This year it is expected to achieve the fastest rate of growth among the 27 EU member states (+7%), thanks to a recovery in its exports, wage moderation and labour flexibility. Latvia is benefiting from its productive investments and a very moderate rise in labour costs. As for Norway, its growth prospects in 2011 are more moderate but are above those for 2010 (+2.5% as opposed to 0.4% last year, according to the OECD). Poland is also experiencing growth: its GDP is expected to be around 4%, a percentage similar to that for 2010, thanks to the strength of public investment in 2011. Beyond Europe's borders, Turkey registered a leap of 8.8% of its GDP during the second quarter (+11.6% in the first quarter) but its economy remains fragile. (IL/transl.fl)