The crucial question. Here is the question that cannot be avoided - Is participation in the euro, with all the obligations that this implies, something all European Union member states are aiming for? Is the mindset of their respective populations in tune with the discipline and rules that need to be respected? These rules do not constitute a criterion for evaluating the quality of a people - intelligence, generosity, artistic merits, honesty in human relations, etc, do not depend on eurozone rules. Before the creation of the single currency, the EU experienced an era where periodic devaluations and revaluations of national currencies upset the way in which the common market functioned. What then happened in Greece with the euro indicates that respect for the rules is not spontaneous or automatic everywhere. Other less glaring cases followed and it is now Italy that risks (due to the economic dimensions of the country) upsetting the way in which the whole zone operates. Obviously, the Italian government is committed to balancing the books in two years' time but this operation is encountering a lot of obstacles and is far from having been agreed (see this column yesterday).
Everyone fighting their own corner. What happened in Italy the moment the authorities began to explain how public cuts were envisaged? Each sector targeted by the cuts accepted the efforts required in principle but in practice asserted that “the cuts are justified and appropriate for the others” and rejected any cuts being made to themselves. Whether it involves pensions, increasing VAT or taxing the highest salaries, each sector has at times demonstrated a remarkable mastery of dialectics and rejected any cuts being made against itself. As for cuts in the political field, which had been energetically and sometimes indignantly demanded by public opinion, the project goes beyond getting rid of the most scandalous use of public money and is indeed quite radical - reducing the number of MPs and senators by half. There is, however, a disadvantage - such a decision is up to the two chambers themselves and implies an amendment to the constitution, a procedure that would take years (if indeed it goes through). This would have nothing to do with the immediate measures and impacts expected in Brussels.
Dangerous shortcoming. Where are the measures for relaunching the economy which should accompany cuts in public spending? It has not been necessary to wait for any answers with regard to this question from Brussels because the Bank of Italy has itself intervened to emphasise that the government has entirely ignored this aspect. The recovery dimension is inexistent or is “seen as inexistent by the markets”. The project is currently based on increasing taxes to a rate never seen before; but without any economic recovery in parallel, tax revenues will decline!
Exercise in optimism. There is no surprise that in these conditions, concerns and worries are very much to the fore in Brussels. Nonetheless, let's try and be optimistic. A leap forward is possible. Let's not forget the semi-miracle Italy achieved by becoming part of the eurozone in the first place. Romano Prodi, the prime minister at the time, obtained a budgetary correction that had been hitherto unthinkable. If public opinion and the political world understand the importance of the stakes at play and if they become aware of the risks to which the country is prone if it loses its place in the European construction, everything may still be possible.
Cooperation between Greece and Germany. In Germany, faced with the difficulties in Greece and other countries, the situation is sometimes presented diplomatically. It is made clear that the countries are extremely different in both their productive structures and in the mindsets of their respective populations, but both have to live “under a single monetary roof”. Public opinion and the political class are wondering if this is possible.
We are aware to what extent the situation in Greece as a member of the eurozone appears to be beyond all hope of recovery. And now Germany, having decided to gradually phase out nuclear energy, is looking to develop renewable energy and one of its first and most ambitious projects will be carried out with Greece as a partner: 20,000 hectares of solar energy parks to produce clean energy for export to Germany; €20 billion investment; the objective is production of 200 MW of energy and 60,000 new jobs in Greece. This is the Helios project. The cooperation agreement between Germany and Greece has been concluded and the German minister for the economy will go to Athens next month to fine-tune the project.
Greece still faces enormous difficulties in meeting its commitments on the euro and the situation in Italy is still chaotic and unsatisfactory. Nonetheless, let's try not to close the door on any positive developments. Leaps forward should not be ruled out. (F.R./transl.fl)