Shadow and light. Why does this column, whilst recognising the historic importance of the awakening of several countries from the Arab world, together with the bright prospects resulting from it, not hide the uncertainties and distance between the aspirations expressed and their being put into practice? Because the rhetoric expressed in certain countries is pure populism and creates illusions. The analyses made from those on the ground regarding certain developments (such as the number of those arriving on the Italian coast) confirm that those who have had the courage to escape and call for democracy are searching just as fervently (and sometimes even more so) for jobs and an improvement in their economic situation. Concealing some of the situation is a very astute exercise but it is not very honest. Today and tomorrow, this column will do its best to present a balanced view of the situation.
Egypt. The situation in this country is the most problematic. In practice the army has taken power (a few commentators have overtly referred to a military coup d'état) and it is curious to note to what extent a number of other commentators are ignoring or neglecting this crucial factor: this powerful army only exists through US funding - more than $1 billion a year or $1.5 billion, according to some sources. There have also been large-scale military manoeuvres between the two countries and many Egyptian soldiers are regularly trained in the US. It is obvious that the most important reason for this support is the peace treaty with Israel in 1979 and confirmation of this treaty is a condition for maintaining support. The Egyptian military has also affirmed that the treaties in force will be maintained. Nonetheless “the sentiment on the ground is different” as cautiously indicated in one survey, and a halt to the selling of gas to Israel has already been vociferously called for, not to mention that a certain Sheik has returned to Egypt after a long exile and has urged the masses to pray for everyone to go to Jerusalem and “liberate Palestine”. The military has obviously expressed its intention to respect the treaty with Israel but who is really able to anticipate the result of the free elections announced?
In the context of economic recovery, the data that have been published (I cannot mathematically qualify the exact level but it is indeed very significant) indicate that out of Egypt's population of 80 million, 50 million are illiterate and 70% live on less than €3 a day. This does not prove anything and the obstacles can be overcome, but these are elements that should not be ignored.
Tunisia. The most spectacular development has been the scale of the exodus of Tunisian citizens to Italy. They are mainly motivated by their lack of confidence in a reasonable and rapid improvement in living conditions in their home country. Moreover, the majority of those leaving do not have the right of asylum! Cecilia Malmström, the European commissioner for this question, has spoken out on a number of occasions and I recall her interview to an Italian journalist (L. Offeddu, Corriere della Sera) in the context of Italy being the country most affected by this development. Ms Malmström declared: “The great majority will be sent back. Only those who can prove they have the right to political asylum will have leave to remain. We cannot compel an EU country to accept migrants from non-EU countries. We must help them in their home countries: investment, loans, infrastructure, and trade. Tunisia must at the same time be encouraged to take back its citizens.” In this connection, readers will find our previous issue useful regarding the volume of aid announced by Catherine Ashton.
A survey carried out in Tunisia itself at the embarkation point for the illegal immigrants seeking to go to Europe confirms the main reasons for their extremely hazardous adventure. It is almost always young men who leave behind their country, their wives and sometimes even a modest job because they do not believe that a sufficient improvement in their situation at home will be made within a reasonable period of time. Most of them are subsequently hoping to go on to France where they are convinced they will find jobs, by following the example of so many fellow-citizens who have preceded them but who have underplayed the scale and seriousness of unemployment in France.
It is clear that the forecasts made by the European Commission are far from the hopes harboured by illegal immigrants opting for the dangers and uncertainties of crossing the sea to Europe.
Other situations and considerations. I do not believe that the General Affairs Council on Monday will have much new information to add to this equation. This overview of the real situation in Egypt and Tunisia will be followed tomorrow by a look at other countries. Above all, it will provide a few general remarks about the situation, which in my opinion deserve to be taken into consideration. (F.R./transl.fl)