Brussels, 10/01/2011 (Agence Europe) - Agricultural income per holding in the EU may rise by 20% by 2020 in real terms, compared to the average for 2005-2009, according to a report recently published by the Directorate General for Agriculture of the European Commission. The EU experts also believe that the end of milk quotas in 2050 will have only a very small impact on milk levels and that prospects are good for arable farmers.
The development in farm income, however, will vary greatly between the 15 “old” member states and the 12 states which joined more recently. The increase in revenue is likely to be 10% for the first group and 45% for the second group. The Commission has taken account of a drop in the number of holdings and acknowledges that these forecasts contain considerable uncertainty, particularly regarding prospects for the markets and political developments concerning the CAP (common agricultural policy) and its budget or a potential agreement at the WTO (World Trade Organisation) on the increased liberalisation of trade.
Good prospects for cereals. According to the report on agricultural prospects for the period 2010 to 2020, the future seems largely positive for the cereals market, with stocks at a low level. Consumption is set to increase in the EU, due mainly to increased yields of bio-ethanol and biomass (26 million tonnes in 2020 compared to around 9 million in 2010). Cereals production is likely to be close to 313 million tonnes in 2020, representing an increase of more than 11% compared to the 2010 crop. Exports, on the other hand, which were in excess of 27 million tonnes in 2009 and 2010 due to rocketing prices, are expected to fall back down to a level of around 22 million tonnes in around 2020. Production of oleaginous crops is also set to increase from 2012, reaching 33.3 million tonnes in 2020 (+11%). But as internal consumption is predicted to be just shy of 50 million tonnes, the EU will remain heavily dependent on imports, particularly to feed its cattle.
Pork riding high. European production of meats is expected to rise slightly over the period, to reach 44.4 million tonnes in 2020, up 4% on 2009 levels. Developments are likely to differ from sector to sector: 7% drop in production for bovine meat (7.3 million tonnes in 2020, compared to 7.9 millions tonnes in 2010) and veal (765,000 tonnes in 2020), a fall of 11% for sheep and goat meat, a 6.8% increase for poultry meat (12.4 million tonnes) and an increase of 6.3% to reach 23.6 million tonnes (in 2020) for pork meat. The Commission's report also predicts an increase in imports of bovine and poultry meat and a drop in exports of bovine, pork and poultry meat. Overall imports of meat will grow by 14% between now and 2020, whilst exports will decrease by 23%. Pork is expected to remain the only sector with a small positive trade balance in 2020.
The end of milk quotas: no major effects. Deliveries of milk within the EU are set to rise by 5% by 2020; the report states the view that the end of quotas in 2015 will have only a very small impact on production. Prospects seem positive for highly added-value dairy products, with an increase in demand for cheeses and fresh products. Production of these products is expected to rise by 10% and 8% respectively by 2020. The EU is set to maintain a market share of 30% of international trade in cheese, whilst its share of the powdered milk market is likely to fall to 21% in 2020, compared to 24% in 2009. (L.C./transl.fl)