World tourism forecast to rise in 2010. - The tourism industry is expecting to see an improvement in 2010, according to the Global Tourism Organisation (OMT), which is predicting a 3-4% recovery this year, or possibly higher in the light of the 2% recovery in Q409. Overall, income fell by 6% in the global tourist industry last year. The world crisis and fears generated by the H1N1 flu epidemic made the 2009 financial year one of the toughest in the decade, beating even the impact of the September 2001 attacks, commented OMT. In the first quarter of 2009, the number of tourists in the world fell by 10%, picking up slightly in Q209 (-7%) and Q309 (-2%). In terms of regions, Europe registered the worst slump with a 10% cut in the number of tourists, followed by the Middle East with a 6% cut, the Americas with a 5% cut and Asia and the Pacific with a 2% cut. Africa saw a 5% rise in tourist numbers, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, due to its low costs. The greatest recovery in 2010 is expected in Asia, with a moderate recovery in Europe. Tourism is expected to continue to rise in Africa because South Africa is hosting the football World Cup this year. The tourism industry is concerned about the fragility of the economic recovery, resurgence of the swine flu epidemic, over-speedy withdrawal of economic recovery programmes and a rise in terrorism threats. The expected recovery is therefore unlikely to feed through into any real growth in income, profits or employment. (I.L./transl.fl)