Brussels, 14/02/2007 (Agence Europe) - A reflexion paper drafted by the staff of Secretary General and High Representative for the CFSP Javier Solana, and given to EU foreign ministers in Brussels on Monday warns that, “At some stage we must expect that Iran will acquire the capacity to enrich uranium on the scale required for a weapons programme”. The document delivers a negative assessment of diplomatic efforts made by the EU to have Iran suspend its uranium enrichment activities and negotiate with the “Six” - EU3 (France, Germany, United Kingdom), China, Russia, United States - on their offer of cooperation in trade, technology (in the civilian nuclear area) and regional security, that was tabled in 2006. “Iran's rejection makes it difficult to believe that, at least in the short run, they (the Iranians) would be ready to establish the conditions for the resumption of negotiations,” the document highlights, and it regrets that, since the 2004 Paris Agreement, under the terms of which they undertook to suspend their nuclear programme, the Iranians have pursued the programme “at their own pace”, a pace that has been more affected by “technical difficulties … than by resolutions from the UN or the IAEA”. The document also notes that UN Security Council Resolution 1737, which was adopted unanimously, “has had an impact on Iran, which is still not fully measurable at this stage”. “The sanctions contained in the Resolution have limited direct effect but they come at a moment when the economy is performing poorly, partly because of Iranian mismanagement”, it goes on. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is “under criticism”, the document notes, because of the high rate of inflation, and because economic growth of 5% is not keeping up with the need for job creation. “Foreign investment (in Iran) has all but dried up, partly because of the nuclear issue and associated action (e.g. restriction on Iranian banks, greater caution of export credit agencies). Without new investment, Iran risks being unable to maintain medium-term oil production, currently 50 per cent of government income,” the document continues. The Council Secretariat General considers, however, that, “The problems with Iran will not be resolved through economic sanctions alone”, as they were set out in Resolution 1737 (embargo on the transfer of technology to Iranian nuclear and ballistic programmes, limits set on financial transactions towards these programmes, freezing of assets and visa bans on some Iranian leaders). “Iran has shown great resilience to outside pressure in the past, for example during the Iran/Iraq war in the 1980s, the document says. It goes on, “The government may also exploit the sanctions to benefit nationalism or to explain economic failure”. “Nevertheless, Iran must understand that the pursuit of policies which the international community rejects is not cost-free,” it stresses.
While, on Monday, it endorsed the UN Security Council plan for the implementation of sanctions (see EUROPE 9364), the Council nonetheless made clear yet again that it was leaving the door open to negotiations with Tehran. By way of conclusion, the document wondered if the EU should “press for further UN sanctions if Iran fails to comply with resolution 1737?” “If so, in which areas?” and, if, in this thorny issue, “the unity of the international community” is believed to be important, “how is this best maintained?” (eh)