Brussels, 18/08/2005 (Agence Europe) - 'The British Presidency of the European Union under the symbol of efficiency' is the title selected by Anand Menon and Paul Riseborough (both from Birmingham University's European Research Institute) for Issue 42 of Notre Europe's Studies and Research series, looking at the current six months Presidency of the Council of the EU. Notre Europe was launched by Jacques Delors and is chaired by former European Commissioner and future Director General of the WTO, Pascal Lamy. In the preface, Notre Europe explains that when the idea of this research into the six month British Presidency was being mooted, nothing seemed to suggest anything special for the six months in question, but since then the rejection of the European Constitution by France and the Netherlands has changed everything for Tony Blair, removing the danger of a referendum at home that all the polls suggested would be a very tight affair. Right in front of Tony Blair's eyes opened up the prospect of unexpected room for manoeuvre, despite the fact all the problems were piling up one after another - breakdown of negotiations over the Financial Perspectives, doubts about Turkey's accession, and the situation in Iran and Iraq (the research was published before the July attacks in London that made anti-terrorism even more pressing a priority than before, Ed.).
The authors of the study quote a high-ranking British official who, after the French and Dutch referendums, explained that the British Presidency would focus on value-added, to demonstrate that Europe can work. Two big issues selected by the Presidency - climate change and Africa - were largely selected in order to take advantage of Britain chairing both the Council of the EU and the G8 at the same time, explain Menon and Riseborough, adding that since the French referendum, British reserve has given way to frank determination in terms of the need for reform in Europe. Tony Blair is convinced that the EU has reached a moment of truth, a turning point, and the British Presidency provides an opportunity to strike agreement on the type of reform London has wanted to see for a long time. The British priorities for the Presidency are current events and issues, but the main battlegrounds will be the future of the Constitutional Treaty, economic reforms and changing the EU's budget (this report was written before Tony Blair's announcement of the holding of an informal special summit in the autumn to look at the European social model and the future of Europe, Ed.). On the Financial Perspectives, the authors point out that a report published by the House of Lords in March 2005 supported London's position over the British rebate. The report notes that as long as the Common Agricultural Policy absorbs such a huge part of the EU budget, keeping the British rebate is perfectly legitimate. The authors point out on the battle of the budget that many things hang on positive settlement to this issue. And this comes at a time when the EU25 has to strike unanimous agreement on a budget for a seven year time period during which new countries may join and when the European Parliament wants to have a greater weight in the negotiations than in the past (the Constitutional Treaty would give it greater powers). (President Borrell uses every opportunity to explain that without the EP, there will be no budget, and the European Parliament has already published budget options in the Böge report, Ed.).
On the domestic front, the study looks at the problems for Tony Blair in remaining impartial because he is subject to strong pressure at home to defend British views. The authors feel that much will depend on London's capacity to come up with compromises and court the French President, who cannot afford to lose face at home. But the slightest suspicion of compromise on issues like the British rebate will lead to howls of protest in the media and the opposition (not to mention the Chancellor of the Exchequer). At the same time, relations between the government and the Europhile lobby are becoming bitter, admit the authors, pointing out that Stephen Wall, former advisor to Tony Blair on European affairs (erstwhile British Permanent Representative in Brussels), immediately criticised the government in its handling of these issues. They conclude that Tony Blair is clearly savouring the opportunity he's been handed to take the initiative to propose reforms that if successful would make Europe even more Anglo-Saxon, but British political life and public opinion, subject to a regime of Euroscepticism for such a long time, may not necessarily grant him the space he needs to succeed.