Moderate and justified optimism. In my first editorial of the New Year, I will continue with my vein of moderate and, I hope, justified optimism. Despite the rather gloomy atmosphere surrounding Community affairs in the new year, I continue to believe that 2004 could and should be a turning point in the construction of a united Europe. It is the year when eight Central and Eastern European countries will join the EU as a sign of genuine reunification of the continent and it will be the year when the first, unprecedented European Constitution is approved.
It is understandable that citizens and some politicians are disenchanted with the latest round of enlargement of the EU, studying the small print and searching for possible problems and disadvantages. One doesn't feel the blast of history every day. Daily life has its burdens, entrepreneurs assess the prospects for their companies and workers consider their employment prospects. A degree of anxiety about the new challenges of enlargement is shared by citizens in both new and old Member States. Daily concerns, justified and sometimes very worrying, would exist, however, without enlargement and the advantages of this enlargement should be considered, like political stability, consolidation of freedom and democracy and removing all risk of conflict. One only has to look at nearby regions like parts of the Balkans, where the peace process is still underway and rivalry and bitterness has not yet been eradicated, to see the difference and understand the extent to which stabilisation and the end of conflict depend on prospects of joining the European Union.
Confidence in enlargement. Central and Eastern Europe used to be cut off from the rest of the continent to which it belongs and this separation lasted for half a century. It is now coming to an end. The advantages of reunification are not just political and historical but also economic, environmental and cultural. Recent history has an impact, of course, and we have to understand the sensitivities of people who have only recently rediscovered their autonomy and freedom. They need to experience united Europe to become more aware of what the European spirit means and that solidarity means more than financial aid alone. They have to be made capable of playing a full role in the common project and feel they are respected and listened to and will not be ordered about by the big countries in the EU as long as the Community Method is respected. Some Central and Eastern European countries demonstrate every day that they already have the European spirit (some more than others, of course).
Encouraging new aspects for the Constitution. To continue in a positive vein, the temporary suspension of the Intergovernmental Conference on the Constitution will be seen by tomorrow's historians as a secondary event if the negotiations are brought to a close this year. The Constitution would then come into force at the beginning of 2006 but its impact would precede it and not just psychologically since important areas of EU legislation (including partial review of the Stability Pact) would already fall within the perspective of the Constitution's principles and procedures. The people who no longer believe in the Constitution (and seem resigned to the watering down of the EU) didn't experience the previous crises, some of which were more serious than the current one, but Europe always emerged reinvigorated. There are signs that the same could happen this year (also European election year) when the new Commission will be appointed with Commissioners from the new Member States and the post-2006 financial framework will be prepared.
It is possible, of course, that things will turn out for the worst. If the Constitution is not approved or if its content is diminished, then the move to 25 Member States without revising the institutions and the other progress foreseen in the Constitution could end up watering down the EU into a soggy incoherent mass, lacking in political ambition and destined to inexorably slide into the morass of intergovernmental co-operation. But even here all would not be lost because a group of countries would refuse to accept this and would take suitable initiatives (open to all new and old Member States that wish to participate) to make progress. But this would be the last resort. Let us stick with the hypothesis of the Constitution being approved, thank you very much. During the Christmas and New Year holidays various positions were clarified and some uncertainty was removed, and in my view this justifies the optimism of my editorial. I will explain tomorrow.
(F.R.)