Brussels, 10/04/2001 (Agence Europe) - The World Bank very prudently confirmed on Monday its prediction that the global economy is likely to rebound this year and rise above 3% in 2002 "because underlying technological and productivity trends are favourable". It forecasts that the European economy is likely to prove more resilient to the slowdown than the United States or Japan.
In a statement released to coincide with the publication of its annual report on external financing prospects for developing and transitions countries, the Bank notes that "with world GDP growth expected to bottom out at 2.2% this year, then climb to 3.3% in 2003", prospects for growth in developing countries will depend heavily on the performance of the three bit industrial economies, the United States, Europe and Japan. It expects Europe to be more resilient to the economic slowdown that the other two economic regions. The report comments that an "early recovery" is more likely than a prolonged period of low growth, although the probability of the latter scenario has increased over recent months with the faster than expected slowdown in the US. The World Bank forecasts that growth in developing countries should average 4.2% in 2001, a drop of more than a full percentage point from last year, but still 0.8 percentage point higher than growth in these countries in the 1990. The Bank predicts that the highest growth levels will be in East Asia and the Pacific (5.4%), and the lowest in Europe and central Asia.