If Russia decides to cut off gas supplies to the EU or the EU decides to introduce an embargo on Russian gas to support Ukraine, it should be possible to replace Russian gas as early as next winter without devastating economic activity, making people cold or disrupting electricity supplies, argues think-tank Bruegel in an analysis published on 28 February.
This would require “improvisation and entrepreneurial spirit”, the revision of “dozens of regulations” and “usual procedures”, rapid and substantial expenditure and “hard decisions”, the organisation warns.
It went on to add: “In many cases, time will be too short for perfect answers”.
Establishing three scenarios (the end of Russian imports, limited imports and ordinary imports), the analysis shows that in the event of a total halt to Russian gas supplies, even a record level of gas imports (including liquefied natural gas) from other countries would not be sufficient to fill up stocks sufficiently before next winter.
According to Bruegel, the EU’s scope for reducing its dependence on Russian gas is in fact highly dependent on demand.
Europe should thus reduce its gas demand by at least 400 TWh (i.e. 10 to 15% of annual demand). This is a “possible” scenario, according to the authors of the analysis, for which a combination of exceptional options could even reduce this demand by at least 800 TWh.
These include: rapid deployment of photovoltaic panels and heat pumps, reducing demand in industry, switching from gas to coal, delaying nuclear phase-out, making energy savings in the residential and commercial sectors.
The analysis also points to the EU’s limitations in increasing its imports of liquefied natural gas.
See the analysis: https://aeur.eu/f/k3 (Original version in French by Damien Genicot)