With Brexit negotiations on both the divorce (citizens’ rights, Ireland and financial settlement) and the future relationship (free trade, security) due to be concluded by the autumn to allow an orderly withdrawal by the United Kingdom from the EU at the end of March 2019, the European Commission ramped up the pressure on London on Wednesday 28 February with the publication of a provisional draft of the final agreement, defining certain points of the joint draft withdrawal agreement of December 2017 (see EUROPE 11922).
It is this final agreement that will have to be approved by EU ministers and ratified by the European Parliament and the UK parliament, ideally before March 2019.
Among the points spelled out, if not highlighted, are the EU27’s vision on a specific solution for the island of Ireland and issues yet to be negotiated with London, for example, Euratom and matters such as intellectual property.
The draft final agreement published on Wednesday was “no surprise”, EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier told the press. It sets out in legal terms the EU’s “red lines” on the post-Brexit transition period which, the EU says, will terminate at the end of 2020: - no veto for the UK in the event of new European legislation adopted after March 2019 that may be against British interests; - the same rights for EU citizens established in the UK before Brexit and those who settle there during the transition period.
London would appear to have conceded on this point, according to a negotiating position unveiled the same day.
Barnier stressed that, if the negotiations were to be successful, they would have to be speeded up. Publication of the draft final text, he believes, is a key or pivotal moment in the talks.
In 168 Articles on 120 pages, the Commission sets out its assessment of what had been agreed in the first phase of negotiations, on UK withdrawal. Provisions on future bilateral relations, including commercial, will come later once London has prepared its proposals.
UK Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to reveal the British government’s post-Brexit vision in Friday 2 March, with some of her ministers arguing about whether or not the country should remain in the customs union. Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn has called for a new customs union with the EU.
At the next European summit on Friday 23 March, the EU27 will adopt their guidelines on these future relations, whether London is ready or not (see EUROPE 11968). European Council President Donald Tusk will meet the UK prime minister in London this Thursday.
Ireland remains an explosive issue. On Wednesday, the clarifications provided by the Commission on Ireland, on which there will be a specific protocol, provoked an avalanche of reactions in the UK.
The Commission proposed the third option to avoid the return of a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Discussed with London in December, this option provides for Northern Ireland’s full alignment with the rules of the customs union and the single market.
Only if the issue of Ireland is not settled either as part of the future relationship (option 1) or through specific solutions proposed by the UK (option 2) will the third option come into play.
The protocol envisaged by the Commission is, then, a “backstop” to be used only if no other solution is found. However, “we are ready to work immediately” on any solution that the British government might bring forward, Barnier made clear.
The priority of the Commission, the EU27 and also the UK is to preserve the Good Friday agreement and economic cooperation across the Ireland-Northern Ireland border. Everyone wants to avoid a return to a hard border between the two, which could bring a return of the tensions and violence of the troubles that were finally brought to an end by this 1998 agreement.
The Commission, then, proposed a common regulatory area on the island of Ireland and identified relevant sectors (including animal health, phytosanitary standards and the environment) for which regulatory alignment with the internal market or the customs union would avoid checks at the border.
This solution, however, could result in displacement of the border and checks on imports and the creation of a separation between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK in the Irish Sea. Scotland, which voted to remain in the EU, would seek equivalent treatment.
The suggestion was not well received in London: May rejected any agreement that would compromise the “integrity” of the country. “The draft legal text the Commission have published would, if implemented, undermine the UK common market and threaten the constitutional integrity of the UK by creating a customs and regulatory border down the Irish Sea”, she said, adding: “no UK prime minster could ever agree to it”.
Barnier argued that he was not seeking to provoke the UK. “I’m not looking to provoke anyone”, he stated, indicating that he was well aware of the institutional and constitutional order in the United Kingdom and that everyone had to respect it. In his view, this was essentially a response to the very specific issue of the island of Ireland.
The text in English of the withdrawal agreement can be found at: http://bit.ly/2oChZyY (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)