The UK has chosen a hard Brexit, reverting to its previous claim that “no deal is better than a bad deal”. But the EU is also ready to play hard ball.
Those who hoped British prime minister Theresa May would soften her Brexit stance were disappointed this week when the Conservative party published its election manifesto, confirming it wants out of both the customs union and the single market.
While the manifesto left the party some wiggle room - the UK may opt in to “specific European programmes” and it will seek a “customs agreement” alongside a free trade deal post-Brexit - it also wants to restrict EU migration and leave the EU Court of Justice, two conditions for single market access. The paper also calls for divorce and trade talks to be done in parallel, clashing with the EU’s desire to tackle the divorce first in what it calls a “phased approach”.
The Liberal Democrats, whose poll numbers are at record lows, say a hard Brexit “is the wrong choice for the country” and have promised, if elected, to put the final deal to a referendum, “with the alternative option of staying in the EU on the ballot paper”.
Labour, which is still polling 15-20 points below the Conservatives, plans to cushion Brexit by maintaining EU social and labour standards and opting into schemes like Erasmus and Europol.
But with the Conservatives set to win the 8 June election and the EU side sticking to its principles, a hard Brexit is looking like a done deal.
Risks
European Council president Donald Tusk repeated this week that there will be “no discussion” on a future trade deal with the UK until sufficient progress is made on citizens, money and borders.
And, he said, a future trade deal “cannot mean participation in the single market or its parts”.
The EU’s lead negotiator, Michel Barnier, told a 3 May Commission meeting that the UK’s insistence on conducting divorce and trade talks in parallel “risked jeopardising the negotiations”.
Mr Barnier also believes the entire deal could be derailed by a fight over money, given EU member states’ reluctance to “contribute more to the current multiannual financial framework or receive less in projects”. Translation: the EU will make the UK pay as much as it can.
“Should there be no agreement on this point, [Mr Barnier] believed that the risk of failing to reach an agreement on an orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom would become real,” minutes of the 3 May meeting say.
Mr Barnier also insists on setting up “effective implementation and dispute settlement mechanisms” that “rely on” the EU Court of Justice, to avoid the deal becoming an “illusory promise”.
Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker “expressed concerns about the ambition of the timetable” and “said it was important to allay possible misunderstandings” about splitting the divorce and trade deals into two phases.
The minutes confirm talks will not start before mid-June, with Mr Barnier predicting a divorce deal between October and December and the start of trade talks between December and next spring.
If the UK agrees, the talks will be broken up into four-week cycles: preparatory work, an exchange of texts with the UK, a negotiating round and a week of reporting back to member states.
EU finalises negotiating stance
Europe ministers are to meet on Monday to sign off on their detailed negotiation position, as set out in draft ‘negotiation directives’ tabled by the Commission earlier this month (see EUROPE 11787).
The text contains some changes from the original, including a mention for services (which will be covered by new negotiating directives); language on transitional arrangements (which should be “clearly defined, limited in time, and subject to effective enforcement”); more detail on citizens’ rights (for students, family members, those whose rights “are in the process of being obtained” on day, as well healthcare rights and free movement); and explicit references to the Multiannual Financial Framework, pensions and the use of “past data” to determine the financial settlement. (Sarah Collins)