The principal negotiator of the European Commission on Brexit, Michel Barnier of France, stressed the risks of the UK leaving the European Union without a mutual and orderly agreement, when addressing the Committee of the Regions (CoR) on Wednesday 22 March.
Barnier's speech opened on a note of gravity as he shared his solidarity with London, which has been hit by an attack near Westminster, leaving four dead, including one police officer and one attacker.
‘No deal’ is not an option. Barnier began by rejecting the prospect of a ‘no deal’, in other words the absence of an agreement between London and the Twenty-Seven on the conditions for the British to leave the EU. He said that the consequences of this situation would be devastating. It would plunge the million British citizens living elsewhere in the EU into "total uncertainty" as to their rights and their future.
However, the list of other potentially negative consequences is a long one. No agreement would also lead to crises of supply and serious air-traffic disruptions. It would see long lines of lorries at Dover, in France. Potentially even more worryingly, the UK would find itself outside the Euratom treaty overnight, with the consequence of shutting off supplies of nuclear materials.
More generally, Barnier took pains to stress the current degree of inter-dependence between the United Kingdom and the rest of the EU, stressing that nearly two thirds of British trade was within the single market and reiterating the existence of the free-trade agreements concluded by the EU with 60 third countries. Barnier was therefore quite clear: the no-deal scenario is not one we subscribe to. Furthermore, the UK will necessarily be worse off outside the EU than it was as a member, he warned.
An orderly withdrawal possible under three conditions
Barnier therefore expressed his preference for an orderly and negotiated withdrawal, to be ratified by the Council of the EU, the European Parliament and the British Parliament, as he then repeated in his exchanges with members of the CoR. He feels that this option is not only desirable, but also quite possible, as long as three conditions are met.
Condition number one. The unity of the Twenty-Seven, together with a process of transparency and public debate, is the first and most important condition. The former Commissioner pledged to work closely with all institutions and bodies of EU. During these negotiations, we must explain objectively what 'leaving the Union' means for the withdrawing member state, and also for the other member states, he said, in reference the rising tide of Euroscepticism.
Condition number two. The many underlying uncertainties for British citizens living on European soil and citizens of the Twenty-Seven in the UK must be laid to rest. Barnier said that the European citizens must be central to the process and ensured a stable long-term environment. The legwork will take several months, he warned, stressing the three major principles that will guide the negotiations: continuity, reciprocity and non-discrimination.
Condition number three. This condition is the need to proceed in stages, Barnier said. First of all, an agreement will have to be reached on the withdrawal of the UK. Then, the future relationship between the EU and the UK must be established. On this, Barnier hopes to move quickly and warned against the temptation of postponing the politically toughest questions until later, as that way lies failure.
A future partnership structured around free trade. Barnier predicts that the future partnership should take the form of a joint agreement, involving the national parliaments in the ratification process. At its core will be a free-trade agreement, which will be like no other, he stressed. He ruled out the idea of a form of "à la carte" participation in the single market for the UK as a third country. In his view, the problem will lie not in the willingness to converge British and Community standards, but in preventing them from diverging in the future. The aim will be to nip in the bud any temptation of the British to go in for "regulatory dumping", Barnier added. The social, fiscal, environmental and consumer protection dimensions would thus be taken into account.
Bilateral defence cooperation. Barnier also spoke of the future of the cooperation between the UK and the Twenty-Seven in the field of defence, stressing the UK's leading role in this area, within both the framework of NATO and that of the EU. He said that this partnership would come under the recent proposals made by Federica Mogherini, the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (see EUROPE 11739).
Northern Ireland, Scotland, Gibraltar. The UK did not all vote to leave the EU. Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar voted to stay in, which has led to the emergence of tensions surrounding their identity.
This led Barnier onto the controversial Irish question. He stressed several times that he would pay great attention to ensuring that the future border of the EU is not a "hard border". He reiterated his commitment to the PEACE programme, as a former Commissioner for Regional Policy (1999-2004).
On including Scotland in the negotiations, he said that he would listen to everybody, but that his only interlocutor in the negotiations would continue to be the British government.
As for Gibraltar, which is incidentally currently blocking the Single European Sky project (see EUROPE 11723), Barnier made himself quite clear: "Gibraltar will leave the EU along with the UK", he said.
Uncertainty over cohesion policy. Barnier sought to reassure the members of the CoR by reminding them that the UK had agreed to the cohesion policy envelope and was therefore obliged to honour its commitments right through to the end. There is considerable uncertainty over the impact of Brexit on the current multi-financial framework (see EUROPE 11747).
The British Prime Minister, Theresa May, has announced that she will trigger article 50 of the Treaty on Wednesday 29 May (see EUROPE 11749). (Original version in French by Pascal Hansens)