The pledges tabled on global greenhouse gas emissions to 2030 fall far short of what is needed to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement, according to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2016, published on Thursday 3 November, the day before the Paris Agreement comes into force, sounds the alarm. It says that the world must urgently increase action to cut a further 25% from predicted 2030 emissions. The reason is simple: even with the Paris pledges, the world is heading for a temperature rise of 2.9 to 3.4℃ this century. 2030 emissions will be 12 to 14 gigatonnes above levels needed to limit global warming to 2℃ compared with pre-industrial levels, the report states. Action needs to be stepped up before 2020, it argues.
The annual UNEP report informs governments and the wider community on how far the response to climate change has progressed over the past 12 months, and thus how far the world is on track to meet wider goals.
The EU, too, must do more. The European Green Party immediately seized the opportunity to show the way. “Now the international community must start doing what it promised last year: to energetically start a race of catching up and redirecting economic development towards sustainable and resilient parameters. For the EU the big question will be whether we will muster the strength to be among the leaders of this marathon race. This is not only an issue of responsibility. It is also a question of economic opportunity. The EU is presently de facto undecided: promising less than would be needed, and showing no clear will to really deliver even on the modest promises”, the party said in a press release.
NGOs are worried and express the same expectations: “The report rings alarm bells in the EU over the need to raise its climate target for 2030. It sends a loud and clear message that the Paris Agreement requires a sharp increase of all current climate pledges. It would be simply arrogant and thoughtless to assume it concerns all countries but the EU”, said Wendel Trio, Director of Climate Action Network (CAN) Europe.
The report clearly states that early action before 2020 will be essential to keep the door open to limit warming to below 1.5°C, as agreed in Paris last year. CAN Europe says that Europe has an important role to play and calls on the EU to cancel the more than 3 billion surplus emissions permits that will have accumulated by 2020 on the European carbon market. It points out that, for the moment, the proposal for long-term reform of the emissions trading scheme (ETS) allows these permits to be used after 2020.
Greenpeace says that the Paris Agreement meant the beginning of the end for fossil fuels globally. It expects therefore that, “in the next couple of weeks, at the Marrakesh climate talks, governments will start addressing this dangerous gap with the urgency our planet requires”, according to Jennifer Morgan, Executive Director of Greenpeace International. If we miss this chance because we are locked into too weak national targets, the window of opportunity will close and will leave us facing massive costs, great risks and huge question marks, she said, warning that the only thing to do is to take action now.
Friends of the Earth International (FoEI) restates its great concerns that, even if governments were to meet their national contribution commitments, the world can still expect warming of 3.5°C “which will be catastrophic for millions across the world”, argued Dipti Bhatnagar, Climate Justice and Energy Coordinator for Friends of the Earth International. Without greater ambition, therefore, the Paris Agreement will fail to deliver the scale of fair and drastic action needed to prevent dangerous climate change, warns FoEI. (Original version in French by Aminata Niang)