Brussels, 28/10/2015 (Agence Europe) - According to initial calculations unveiled on Monday 26 October on the impact of full implementation of WTO trade facilitation agreement (TFA), there will be very large positive repercussions on global trade and growth.
The WTO says that full implementation of the TFA would generate an increase in global merchandise exports of between $750 billion and $1 trillion per year - with a rise of between $170 billion and $730 billion per year for exports from developing countries, and a rise of between $310 billion and $580 billion per year for exports from developed countries. Swift implementation of the TFA would allow the upper range of these estimates to be reached, the WTO states.
In the 2015-2030 period, the TFA would boost growth in global exports by up to 2.7% per year and would bring an estimated 0.5% gain in global GDP per year.
Developing countries would be the top beneficiaries of the TFA (an agreement that aims to help them diversify their exports and integrate global value chains) as they would bring in half the gains that would result from it. Full implementation of the TFA would enable them to increase the number of new products they export by at least 20%. The least developed countries (LDCs) would enjoy stronger growth of up to 35% in their new product exports. Access to foreign markets would increase by 30% for developing countries and by 60% for LDCs.
Once that TFA is completely implemented, trade costs would be expected to decrease by a global average of 14.3%.
The WTO says that other models of economic forecasting show an increase in global exports of between $1.1 trillion and $1.3 trillion per year.
The TFA was concluded at the WTO's 9th ministerial conference in Bali in 2013 and was part of a package of measures, known as the Bali package, which was negotiated for developing countries as part of the Doha Round. It contains a series of rules to simplify and ease customs procedures, and to increase the participation of developing countries in global trade.
The TFA will enter into force when two thirds of the WTO member countries have ratified it. On 27 October, it had been ratified by 51 countries - Australia, Belize, Botswana, China, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), Hong Kong, Japan, Liechtenstein, Laos, Malaysia, Mauritius, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niger, Pakistan, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Togo, Trinidad and Tobago, the USA and the 28 EU member states. (Original version in French by Emmanuel Hagry)