Trade will not see much expansion in 2015. Global trade is beginning to pick up, according to forecasts from insurance-credit company Euler-Hermes. It will grow by only 1.8% this year in value terms (compared with 1.9% in 2014) due to falling oil prices and virtual absence of inflation, while global GDP is expected to expand by around 3% and trade in terms of volume by 4% (compared with 3.3% in 2013). Euler-Hermes says there are three main reasons for this slow growth, viz. austerity around the world has dampened public spending, imports and exports are down and private consumption and investment are lack-lustre. Global trade no longer generates growth, but simply accompanies it, explains Euler-Hermes. In 2016, growth in trade is expected to rise to 4.5% in terms of value, but this is only a fraction of the 12% average growth recorded at global level between 2001 and 2008. (Isabelle Lamberty)