Global medicine sales top $1,000 billion in 2014. Global sales of medicines increased by 8.8% in 2014 and reached a figure of more than $1,000 billion in turnover. In 2015, this turnover is expected to continue to increase to $1100 billion, according to a report by IMS Health, a health data specialist company. Global sales are expected to increase from between 4-7% up to 2018, compared to a 6.2% increase over the past five years, which is mainly driven by the emerging economies. These will remain the main lever for growth in the global medicines market, with annual growth rates of between 10 and 11% forecast in China, Brazil and India, according to IMS Health. The main change compared to the 2009-2013 period will be the return to innovative strength and highly performing new products for large sections of the population, which can demand high prices, given that the level of losses in patents is expected to be reduced, according to IMS Health. This is expected to enable mature markets such as those in the US and United Kingdom to experience robust growth (+6.4% and +5.1% a year). IMS Health forecasts the following developments per country or group of countries in 2018: - US: main global market, US share is expected to significantly tail off in 2014 from 41% to 32%. - “Top 5” Europe (Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom): this market share is also expected to fall but not enormously, from 17% to 14%. - China: market share is expected to climb from the current 9% to 14%. - Japan: the situation will remain stable in Japan at a figure of 8% market share. - Newly emerging countries (Brazil, Russia, India): a slight increase of 5% to 8%. - Rest of the world: the share of the other countries in the world is expected to increase from 20% to 24%. IMS Health also believes that the economic model of the big pharmaceutical companies is now less appropriate. Although they are benefiting from growth in emerging countries, it is, above all, the local laboratories that are the main winners of the development on these markets. In the field of innovation, it is a small groups with a small portfolio of activities that managed to shine in the 2009-2014 period. In particular, it is the laboratories specialising in a single domain that have made the most spectacular breakthroughs. This is the case, for example, with the US company Gilead (virology) and the Danish company, Nordisk (diabetes). IMS Health subsequently believes that notwithstanding any major mergers and acquisitions, the pharmaceutical market will be more fragmented up until 2020, which is not currently the case. In 2020, the 20 main groups are only expected to account for 47% of global sales, as opposed to 57% in 2014 and 64% in 2004. This trend is contrary to trends observed in other economic sectors where an increasing regrouping of activities has been observed. (Isabelle Lamberty)