Observations. The verbal acrobatics don't alter the facts - Greece remaining in the eurozone is becoming problematic. One could even state that the odd way the country operates is making it impossible. This is an observation, not a criticism. Greece clearly has its place in the EU and is entitled to implicit benefits and support, like EU member states that are not part of the eurozone but are fully involved in EU activity. But the structure of the Greek economy is not compatible with the single currency's rules, particularly because the essential part of its economy remains outside the rules, as demonstrated by the facts.
Greece has the third-largest fishing fleet in the world, after China and Russia. It has 4,707 fishing vessels, is worth €105 billion in value and owned by some four dozen families. But this crucial part of the economy does not pay tax on its business outside Greek waters under Article 89 of the Greek constitution, and Greek ship-owners have make open threats that if there are changes to Article 89, then within 24 hours, they will leave Greece and set up shop elsewhere; but their business gives work to 250,000 people. It has to be admitted that the ship owners have made some efforts to contribute to state covers: they agreed to pay an emergency temporary tax in 2012 to help deal with the crisis in Greece, equivalent to €500 million over five years. And they point out that their profits don't serve to make a few fat cats fatter or to boost Swiss bank accounts, but are used to buy new ships for the good of the country. These justifications are clearly to be taken with a pinch of salt. It is not for nothing that the Greek media call ship-owners The new Onassis.
Difficult changes. The above partly explains the problems the Greeks are having with respecting the eurozone discipline. Athens continues to ask for derogations and support, and we know that the talks with the other Eurogroup countries have seen times of great tension. When the Greek prime minister said that the recently unenthusiastic attitude of Spain and Portugal was because there were elections approaching in both countries, the Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, asked the European Commission to openly condemn Tsipras' comments. And the Portuguese authorities said that the Greek government set the Greek minimum pay at a higher level than in Portugal, which has the immediate impact of making Portugal pay to finance benefits for Greeks that are greater than what Passos Coelho's government in Lisbon is able to pay its own citizens.
Inevitable Grexit? The Greek problem has been a national problem right from the start, before it became a European problem. In the first years of the euro, the idea of Greece leaving the eurozone was rejected a priori. I was practically the only columnist to say that if a country can't stick to the single currency's rules, then it should simply leave, in order to respect its functioning and balance. I have always queried the reasoning for the automatic opposition to this eventuality, and I still wonder whether the real reason for it was in fact the interests of banks and other financial bodies.
The idea of a Grexit being impossible has now had its day; and people are talking at length about how a Grexit would operate and what impact it would have.
According to the Institut Jacques Delors, Greece could mint a new drachma that is low in value against the euro. According to Pascal Lamy, the Institut Jacques Delors' president of honour, Greece has introduced significant reforms but still has to take action in key domains like tax-collection and the legal system. These shortcomings make it impossible for it to respect the eurozone's rules. A few years ago, a country leaving the eurozone would have jeopardised the single currency's very existence, but not any longer.
Certainly, the losses for any EU country that has financed Greece will be enormous; but continuing to boost the debt is not a solution.
Changes are already taking place and surprises cannot be ruled out. Some observers say that Greece would request and receive finance from… Russia. Whichever way you look at it, there are unpleasant aspects to the situation, but there's no point hiding the truth.
(FR)