IMF revises forecasts for global growth downwards. In its most recent issue of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) publication dated 20 January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its forecasts for global growth downwards, despite the sharp fall in oil prices, which clearly represents a benefit to global growth. The IMF explains that perspectives for global growth remain gloomy and are also undermined by fundamental weaknesses elsewhere. According to its most recent forecasts, global growth is expected to moderately increase in 2015-2016 from 3.3% in 2014 to 3.5% in 2015 and 3.7% in 2016. This constitutes a downward revision of 0.3 points for these two years, compared to the previous edition of the publication in October 2014. Recent developments involving different countries in different ways have impacted on the global economy since the publication of the October issue, explains the IMF. New factors underpinning growth, (falling oil prices, as well as a fall in the value of the euro and yen) are more than compensated by persistent downsides, particularly the repercussions from the crisis and the fall in potential growth in many countries. In the advanced economies, growth is expected to increase to 2.4% in 2015 and 2016. Nonetheless, these more or less unchanged perspectives hide increasing disparities between the US, on the one part and the eurozone and Japan, on the other. For 2015, US economic growth has been revised upwards to 3.6%, mainly due to the strengthening in domestic private demand. The fall in oil prices is increasing real incomes and consumer confidence and accommodating monetary policy is continuing to support business activity, despite the gradual increase in interest rates expected. On the other hand, poorer investment perspectives are affecting growth prospects in the eurozone and these have been revised downwards to 1.2%. This is despite the fall in oil prices, the new flexibility in monetary policy, a more neutral budgetary policy and the recent fall in the value of the euro. In Japan, where the economy technically fell into recession during the third quarter of 2014, growth has also been revised downwards to 0.6%. The response from the Japanese authorities, combined with the fall in oil prices and value in the yen, is expected, however, to consolidate growth in 2015 and 2016. In the emerging and developing countries, growth is expected to remain more or less stable at 4.3% in 2015, rising to 4.7% in 2016. This pace is weaker than forecast in the October 2014 issue of the WEO. There are three main factors that explain this downward revision: 1) Forecasts for growth in China, where investment growth slowed and is expected to become even more moderate, have been revised downwards, below 7%. The authorities are now expected to place more importance on reducing the vulnerability related to the rapid growth in credit and investment recently. The forecasts therefore expect the authorities to respond less to the overall slowing down. Nonetheless, this slowing down in growth has repercussions on the rest of Asia; 2) Russia's economic perspectives have clearly deteriorated, with a growth forecast of -3.0% for 2015, due to the economic impact of the sharp fall in oil prices and the rise in geopolitical tensions; 3) In a lot of emerging and developing countries, the expected rebound in growth in countries exporting basic products is weaker and subject to delays, compared to the October 2014 forecasts because the impact of the falling prices in oil and other basic products in terms of trade and real incomes is having more of an effect on medium-term growth. For many oil importing countries, growth resulting from falling oil prices is less than in the advanced countries because a much bigger part of these exceptional gains from the situation have gone to the public authorities (for example, in the form of a fall in energy subsidies). (IL)