Brussels, 04/09/2014 (Agence Europe) - Whilst work on strengthened EU sanctions against Russia continued in Brussels and Europe's capitals on Thursday 4 September, hope of a ceasefire between the Ukrainian army and the pro-Russian separatists - should there be agreement on 5 September on a settlement plan for the conflict in Eastern Ukraine proposed by Russia's President Vladimir Putin - was permitted.
At the time of EUROPE going to press at the end of Thursday afternoon, the pro-Russian separatist leaders of the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Lugansk in Eastern Ukraine were said to be ready to order a ceasefire should there be agreement on the peace plan during the contact group meeting (composed of representatives from Ukraine, Russia and the OSCE) in Minsk (Belarus) on Friday 5 September.
Earlier in the afternoon, Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko had announced - on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Newport (UK) - that a document setting out the stages for implementing a peace plan for Ukraine (the key arrangement of which is a ceasefire) was due to be signed in Minsk on Friday. On Wednesday, Petroshenko and Putin proposed a seven-point peace plan providing for an internationally-monitored halt to hostilities, the use of aviation being excluded, an “unconditional” exchange of prisoners according to the “all for all” formula, and the opening of human corridors.
The EU continued its preparatory work on Thursday for strengthened sanctions against Russia. Experts from the EU member states continued to examine the proposals adopted the previous day by the Commission, which were sent to the ambassadors of the 28 EU member states, aiming to complete the series of restrictive measures adopted by the EU on 31 July, regarding access to capital markets, defence, dual-use goods and sensitive technology. “It's in the hands of the member states. It's up to them to hold discussions and move forward. When they are adopted by the member states, these proposals will be made public through the normal channels”, said a Commission spokesperson at midday. “Member states' experts are using all the secure means at their disposal to communicate effectively and wind up the package in the set time limit. The restriction measures are normally adopted by unanimity and we have no indication enabling us to think this will be any different”, the spokesperson for High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton added.
According to the content of a document revealed by French daily newspaper Le Monde on 4 September, the Commission proposes to deepen the sanctions already taken by the EU at the end of July rather than explore restrictions in other sectors. The idea is that this would make implementation quicker and make the sanctions decided upon in July more effective. As regards access to the financial markets, the Commission suggests going further than just the restriction of access to Western capital markets (shares and bonds) for big Russian state banks, by forbidding EU nationals from participating in syndicated loans to big Russian state banks. The Commission plans, in particular, to ban the financing on European financial markets of defence companies and Russian oil companies in which the Russian state participates. Gazprom and Rosneft would be directly affected. The Commission suggests banning the export of dual use goods (civil and military), such as certain super-computers or communication encrypting technology, and the signature of oil exploration service contracts.
The Commission also suggests coordinated action within the G7 and beyond in order to recommend the suspension of Russia's participation in big cultural, economic and sports events (Formula 1 races, UEFA football competitions, and the 2018 World Cup due to take place in Russia).
However, the Commission document does not mention France's planned deliveries to Russia of two Mistral warships (Paris has decided to suspend delivery of the first ship, which was planned for October). “The conditions for this delivery are a ceasefire being applied and an agreement putting an end to the conflict between Ukrainians and Russians”, said France's minister for foreign affairs on Thursday.
Oettinger does not rule out worst case scenario on Russian gas. European Commissioner for Energy Günther Oettinger, who is currently mediating to settle the gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine, is now less confident than before as regards the security of the EU's supply of Russian gas - half of which transits Ukraine. “Just how much Putin uses false information, lies and weapons is beyond my imagination”, he said on 2 September. For that reason, he said, he no longer rules out the worst. One of the scenarios would be a teaming-up between the pro-Russian separatists from East Ukraine and Crimea, annexed by Russia in March, and beyond, with Transnistria, the Russian-speaking separatist region of neighbouring Moldova, which would then cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea. (EH)