Brussels, 11/07/2014 (Agence Europe) - A free-trade agreement between the EU and US (TTIP) which was limited to reducing customs duties would penalise the Swiss economy - while a much wider and more ambitious agreement on non-tariff barriers would be of benefit to Switzerland, according to two reports published on Thursday 10 July by the University of Bern's World Trade Institute and commissioned by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO).
Over two thirds of Swiss exports are to the EU (56%) and the US (11%). Depending on the results of the negotiations, the TTIP could penalise Switzerland - particularly on the US market, given that there is no Switzerland-US free-trade agreement. At the same time, Switzerland could benefit from the TTIP if it creates new non-discriminatory regulations, says SECO, adding that the two reports only enable initial estimates to be made on the possible consequences of the TTIP for Switzerland and consider possible economic options for Switzerland.
The first report examines three scenarios corresponding to different levels of integration, which include the possibility of trade measures taken by Switzerland in the form of a parallel agreement between EFTA and the US. The repercussions vary between a long-term drop of 0.5% in GDP (if the TTIP focuses on cutting customs duties and if there is no EFTA-US free-trade agreement) and a 2.9% increase (if the TTIP is wide-ranging and there is an EFTA-US free-trade agreement).
According to the first study, Switzerland would see its services sector less affected than its goods exports. By contrast, liberalisation of US public procurement would open big new markets to EU tenderers - markets to which Swiss companies would not always have access. According to the second study, the possible adoption of restrictive rules of origin under the TTIP would penalise Swiss automobile suppliers and Swiss manufacturers of precision instruments. The second study also predicts the possible replacement of intermediate products produced in Switzerland by European or American products - but the substitution of Swiss components by EU or US components would be in weaker proportion on the US side. (EH)