Brussels, 03/06/2014 (Agence Europe) - The situation in Ukraine, tension with Russia, the global economy and trade, energy security, climate change and development will be at the heart of the G7 summit agenda (Germany, Canada, US, France, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom) that the European Union is hosting in Brussels on Wednesday 4 and Thursday 5 June.
Originally, Russia was due to host the G8 summit at the beginning of June in Sochi, the scene of the recent Olympic Games. At a special meetingin The Hague on 24 March, however, G7 leaders, plus the presidents of the European Council and the European Commission, decided not to go to Russia but to meet in Brussels in a format that excludes Moscow (see EUROPE 11046).
At this stage, the Europeans consider organising new G8 summits to be “premature”. One European source indicated that “Russia has excluded itself” from the informal group, by the action it has taken. This same source emphasised that “it is up to Russia to comply with international law and the values of the G8 group, so that the G8 can once again be the G8”. It is to be expected that the “G7 will remain G7” as long as Russia does not respect the principles of the “rule of law and territorial integrity”. No explicit mention, however, was made to Russia's annexation of the Crimea or Russian military activity on the Ukrainian border.
Although excluded from the G7, Russia has been invited to the commemorations on Friday 6 June celebrating the 70th anniversary of the Allied landings in June 1944, which changed the course of the Second World War.
Ukraine. Over a working dinner on Wednesday, leaders of G7 countries are expected to tackle foreign policy questions.
Unsurprisingly, the main course on the menu will be Ukraine, said a European source. The seven leaders are expected to discuss the most recent developments following the Ukrainian presidential elections on 25 May, which saw Petro Porochenko (see other article) elected, in the context of continued violence in the east of the country and the withdrawal of Russian troops from the border.
The G7 is expected to welcome the fact that elections were held, as well as Ukraine's restraint in the face of Russian interference into the country's sovereignty. The heads of state and government may also ratify support for the Ukrainian economy and political reforms. Once again, they are expected to condemn Russia for violating Ukraine's territorial integrity, its annexation of the Crimea and its role in destabilising the east of the country.
On the question of sanctions against Russia, the leaders could possibly confirm that they are prepared to step up targeted sanctions and introduce further charges on Russia if the course of events deems this necessary. A European source indicated, however, that “priority will be on diplomatic and political efforts”. The same source explained that Russia could make more of an effort than it currently was and that “the presidential elections in Ukraine will see the possibility of direct discussions between Ukraine and Russia and we will call on Russia to commit itself to these discussions, recognise the president and refrain from destabilising the eastern region of Ukraine. We have this window of opportunity and this is the message that we want to put across”.
G7 leaders will also examine other urgent matters, such as Syria, where more than 160,000 people have died since the beginning of the conflict and 9.3 million are in need of humanitarian assistance. It could also return to the subject of the presidential elections held on 3 May, which were described by the EU as “a parody or democracy, without any credibility at all”. The heads of state and government are likely also to call on all the different parties in Libya to commit themselves to a political dialogue and denounce violence. G7 leaders may also call for progress in the Middle East peace process, in Iran, North Korea and Afghanistan.
Energy. With the Ukrainian crisis as a backdrop, in addition to tension with Russia, G7 leaders will discuss the subject of energy security. They will be drawing on the discussions of their energy ministers in their meetings in Rome on 5-6 May (see EUROPE 11073) and will examine how best to identify and implement individual and collective national energy policies, as well as how to construct a more competitive, diversified, robust and low-fuel consuming energy system. They will emphasise the importance of diversifying supply routes and sources, modernisation of energy infrastructure, improved energy efficiency and the development of domestic energy sources and clean technologies.
G7 leaders are expected to endorse the G7 Energy Declaration, which seeks to complete European Commission attempts to develop emergency plans for the winter of 2014-2015 at a regional level and to exchange best practice in assessing energy security vulnerability. They are also expected to affirm their support for efforts made by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to prepare options for individual and collective G7 action in the gas security field and provide technical assistance to Ukraine and other European countries seeking to develop a domestic hydrocarbon capacity and their renewable energies, and to improve energy efficiency.
Economy. On Thursday morning, the leaders will review the international economic situation. The discussions will focus on how to support the economic recovery and address the challenge of ever greater unemployment. The G7 will therefore underline the importance of continuing structural reforms, and of completing the reform of financial markets by bringing a true response to the issues for market stability that the too-big-to-fail financial institutions represent.
In the area of taxation, the focus will be on work to prevent tax evasion and fraud. The world leaders will give their backing to the process launched under the G20. In Australia in mid-November, the G20 summit will approve the (OECD) standard on the automatic exchange of tax information (see EUROPE 11074).
Trade. As regards trade and investment, the G7 leaders are expected to reaffirm their commitment to fighting protectionism. They are expected to take stock of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) Doha round multilateral negotiations, to underline the need to rapidly implement the Bali package, which was agreed at the ministerial conference in December 2013 (see EUROPE 10980), and to continue efforts on assistance to trade. The EU and its member states in the G7 will have the opportunity to assess and give new momentum to the free-trade negotiations with each of their three G7 partners - the USA (TTIP), Canada (CETA) and Japan.
Climate change. Meeting at the time of the resumption of the international climate negotiations in Bonn (ministerial segment on 5-6 June), the G7 leaders are expected to reaffirm their commitment to containing the rise in the average temperature at the surface of the planet to below 2 degrees Celsius. They are also expected to reaffirm their strong determination to conclude a global climate agreement in 2015 during the Paris climate conference (COP 21, December 2015).
This confirmation will be a signal to the climate summit from the heads of state, which was called for by Ban Ki-moon in New York on 23 September, and a signal to the UN conference in Lima (COP 20) at the end of the year. Through the US Environmental Protection Agency, the US has just announced its intention to reduce emissions from its existing US power plants by 30% by 2030 (compared with 2005) - which is an encouraging sign (see EUROPE 11092).
Development. Development issues will be addressed over a working lunch on Thursday 5 June. The G7 leaders will discuss the global framework for development post-2015, which will replace the Millennium Development Goals by combining the fight against extreme poverty and sustainable development.
The G7 leaders are also expected to reaffirm their commitment to the Muskoka Initiative on maternal, newborn and child health, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI), the New Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition, the Deauville Partnership, and the fight against tax evasion and illegal flows of finance.
European Parliament 2014. The issue of the presidency of the European Commission does not feature on the agenda of the G7 summit. Nevertheless, the presence of the leaders from France, Germany, Italy and the UK - as well as the presidents of the European Council and Commission - could provide the opportunity for informal exchanges on this issue. The EU28 have given a mandate to Herman Van Rompuy to lead consultations with the European leaders and the European Parliament on the presidency of the Commission ahead of a formal decision in June, our European source stated (see EUROPE 11089). (AN, CG, EH, MB)