Brussels, 23/09/2013 (Agence Europe) - The WTO is expecting a gradual but solid recovery in world trade in the coming months despite a downwards revision of last spring's forecasts.
The growth in world trade this year and next will probably be slower than forecast, according to the WTO's latest forecasts, with economists now putting forward the figure of 2.5% for 2013 (as opposed to 3.3% in April) - a rate very close to that for 2012 (2.3%) - and 4.5% for 2014 (as opposed to 5% in April) - a rate below the average of 5.4% for the last 20 years. Nevertheless, according to the WTO, the conditions for an improvement in world trade are gradually taking shape. For the WTO's new director general, Roberto Azevedo from Brazil, the underlying message is clear - “the past two years of sluggish trade growth reinforce the need to make progress in the multilateral negotiations” and to conclude a partial agreement on the Doha Round at the ministerial conference in Bali in December.
The WTO explains the downwards revision of its forecasts as being partly due to the decline in imports into the EU from the rest of the world - a decline of 2% in the first half of 2013 in relation to the same period in 2012, which affected exports from its trade partners. By contrast, having risen strongly since the beginning of the year, the imports of developing economies and the CIS have partly compensated for the decline in European trade and the stagnation in the US. However, the WTO does not rule out a stronger recovery in trade than forecast if the EU exits the recession relatively quickly. (EH/transl.fl)